Edit- Due to my poor educational background, I've been reduced to posting links to other sites. And I only get paid a third of what secular commenters who do the same thing get.
"But, without a revolution in Charedi education and employment, the terrifying alternative is change only occurring when there are tens of millions of Charedim living in ramshackle accommodation with a Somalia-like life expectancy amidst marauding Iran-backed militias, and anyone who is able to has left the country already. "
Won't they all be dead already from coronavirus and rat-borne diseases?
"In an earlier post... I lamented the fact that the enormous Siyum HaShas organized by Agudas Yisroel is always a promo for Daas Torah instead of giving proper honor to the true heroes of Daf Yomi. I am glad to see that this time, there is an alternative. The New York Modern Orthodox community is organizing a two-part celebration. ....
'Participants will then gather for the siyum ceremony. Various rabbinic luminaries will speak at the ceremony, but the focus will be on the magidei shiurim (those who teach the daf on a daily basis), the daily attendees of these classes, and those who are actually making the siyum. These people, men and women, young and old, will perform the siyum, read the Kaddish, and share words with the community.'
It's good to see that there are people who know how to give honor where honor is due."
=====
And make sure to click through to the exciting alternative siyum hashas page http://siyumhashas12.com/ for much enlightening and inspiring content!
"It's good to see that there are people who know how to give honor where honor is due."
That's wonderful - wouldn't you agree?(Sorry, I still didn't click on the link.)
Even more ridiculous, I remember a few months ago there was a big rally in some arena near Lakewood featuring many sweaty speeches, long tables with endless bottles of Coke to "celebrate" Torah and be "mechazeik" something or another. It was all very self-congragulatory; the only thing missing was an apparent purpose.
"It was all very self-congragulatory; the only thing missing was an apparent purpose."
Maybe that was because you couldn't be bothered to check? If simply clicking links is too much effort for you, my guess is you probably aren't terribly investigative.
It’s always interesting to see self-proclaimed experts who haven’t the slightest clue about the distinctions between the Chareidi economy and the Chiloni economy. For example, this post is self-contradictory. If the Chareidi population grew by 71% in 14 years then most chareidi adults are below 35 years old. Therefore, it is quite astounding that Chareidi women earn 73% of what their non-Charedi counterparts earn, despite their young age. Even the earning power of Chareidi men makes sense considering their young age, combined with the fact that they are initially restricted by the government from working and the private sector discriminates against them (and the general tendency of Chareidim for asceticism and frugality).
In addition, much ado is made about the cost of funding Chareidi youth (“receives 52% more in welfare payments”). However, no mention was made about the cost of funding the many elderly Chilonim. Funding the elderly is well known to be a looming crisis in much of the developed world. Additionally, no mention was made about the other parts of the government budget which is funneled mainly towards chilonim.
These are just a few of the article’s glaring omissions. Clearly, the author is not interested in the truth but only on making bombastic doomsday predictions.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. What are the numerical relationships between the "many" elderly Chilonim (who presumably already contributed to the system) and the "most chareidi adults are below 35 years old" (who presumably contribute far less to the system- and may actually be net recipients).
"Therefore, it is quite astounding that Chareidi women earn 73% of what their non-Charedi counterparts earn, despite their young age."
What do you mean by counterpart? You mentioned "young age"- but if they're younger than their counterparts, then they're not really counterparts, are they? What evidence do have that this particular statistic was flawed by committing such an elementary error?
"and the general tendency of Chareidim for asceticism and frugality"
I've already pointed this out before. But it's irrelevant to the matter at hand- the economic future of the nation. Because "asceticism and frugality" doesn't contribute to the economy. It's a mistaken notion to praise someone for "asceticism and frugality" if in truth they survive on handouts. You can't impose your frugality on someone else. If you live within your means- that could be frugality. If you live on someone else's means- that could be extravagance.
"Funding the elderly is well known to be a looming crisis in much of the developed world."
Why? Because there's not enough young people? Or not enough tax-paying young people?
" Because "asceticism and frugality" doesn't contribute to the economy. It's a mistaken notion to praise someone for "asceticism and frugality" if in truth they survive on handouts. You can't impose your frugality on someone else."
From Yesh Atid's Lahatabi-lobby. Apparently he's now the arbiter on what's moral for charedim to do.
ח"כ יוראי להב-הרצנו (יש עתיד) ביקר בחריפות את מתווה הגיוס החדש: "מעל הכול זו חרפה מוסרית. העובדה שחלק מהצעירים ישרתו את המדינה וחלק לא, היא בלתי מתקבלת על הדעת. אני תומך בכך שכל צעיר וצעירה במדינת ישראל - חרדים, חילונים, דתיים, ערבים ויהודים - כולם צריכים לשרת את המדינה ולתרום את חלקם, על מנת שנוכל לקיים פה חברה ביחד".
הוא ציין: "לא יכול להיות שהממשלה הזו תפגע בערך השוויון בצורה כל כך קיצונית. המתווה המוצע שנותן פטור לכולם הוא תעודת הפטירה הרשמית של צבא העם. אני חושב שהעיקרון הבסיסי צריך להיות שכולם משרתים את המדינה - שירות צבאי, לאומי או אזרחי - בהתאם לצורכי הביטחון של מדינת ישראל".
Mind you, this isn't about the continued ability of Israel existence as anything. It's simple culture warriorship. Lapid and Co are whining that their social engineering project might get derailed. And you wonder why charedim might be a bit suspicious about attempts to get them to 'contribute?' Like, maybe there's some ulterior motives behind it beyond simple dry economic forecasts which need balanced ledgers?
ראש האופוזיציה יאיר לפיד תקף היום (שני) את תוכנית השירות הצבאי החדשה של צה"ל, שבמרכזה הורדת גיל הפטור מגיוס לצה"ל לחרדים, בתמורה לתגמול כספי לחיילים בתפקידים משמעותיים. "לחוק הגיוס שהממשלה דוחפת יש משמעות אחת - סופו של צבא העם", אמר.
לדבריו, "רק הילדים שלנו יתגייסו לצבא. רק הילדים שלנו יתנו שלוש שנים. רק הילדים שלנו יסכנו את חייהם. מי שלא יתגייס, יגדילו לו את הקצבאות, ורק הילדים שלנו יצטרכו להיות הפראיירים שעובדים ומשלמים מיסים. זה לא חוק גיוס, זו כניעה ללא תנאי להשתמטות ולסרבנות. זה ויתור על הערכים שעליהם קמה מדינת ישראל"
Of course, of course. Who can imagine the sheer terror Tommy Lapid must have felt with when thinking of his boy Yair's incredibly dangerous mission of..... writing combative articles in Bamachaneh newspaper. He was literally risking life and limb.
Sorry, but the leader of Israel's opposition is morally bankrupt, and in no position to lecture charedim about anything, except perhaps on how to put on make-up when appearing on TV.
"I'm not going to get into them here, but what I'd like to marvel at is the sheer dishonesty of the organization spearheading the fight against any change."
Note that you explicitly prefaced that by saying that you aren't weighing in on the merits of the issue:
"Most people have a knee-jerk reaction to this question, but there are in fact complicated issues and reasonable arguments to be made."
"I have absolutely no idea whether the State of Israel should be generating electricity on Shabbat or not. I do not know how the halachic issues involved relate to the technological and societal issues.
"But there’s one thing that I know with certainty: the charedi MKs are absolutely not qualified to make this demand.
...
To weigh in on this question, let alone give an authoritative demand, requires knowledge of, and sensitivity to, a broad range of factors and considerations. And this is something that charedim, by definition, simply lack.
....
"It’s just a joke to think that such people, who are so detached from reality and from responsibility and from national consciousness, are in a position to say what the state should do on anything at all."
Not true. When a person complaining about A is a known liar, or is ignoring equal or worse problems in the world of B and C, it's a good indication that his alleged "concerns" are politically motivated and not actually grounded in reality. To illustrate, if someone only worries about Charedim and not about:
The low secular birthrate
The pitiful ignorance of Judaism among same
The alarmingly high degree of dropouts among DL
The near extinction of Zionism among the left
And more, then you can confidently dismiss whatever that guy is saying about Charedim. He's either lying or misrepresenting or in all events, losing the forest for the trees.
Irrelevant to the topic. The topic is the economic future of the nation, not Lapid's agenda. It would be on topic to show that Lapid is a moron when it comes to basic economic theory. (And Smotrich is another economic moron.)
I didn't undertand your first question. Please word it clearer.
"may actually be net recipients." The key word here is may. All this is pure conjecture with no serious analysis of the facts.
"What do you mean by counterpart?" I guess you didn't realize but that half of the sentence was just a quote from the post above.
"You mentioned "young age"- but if they're younger than their counterparts, then they're not really counterparts, are they?" That is exactly my point. This post is comparing apples to oranges because the author does not recognize the basic differences between Chareidim and Chilonim.
"But it's irrelevant to the matter at hand- the economic future of the nation." Of course it's relevant. The point is that chareidim earn less not due to a lack of education or anything of the sort, but simply because they have less needs. You can't impose your hatred of frugality on someone else.
"Why?" Because it is very expensive for a country to pay for the healthcare and other needs of the elderly, much more expensive than the cost of helping children ("welfare").
What is so complicated? Did you really read what I wrote?
You assumed that the comparison didn't take into account age difference. But you haven't shown that assumption is true. Conjecture.
"Of course it's relevant."
And in the following sentences, you haven't shown relevancy.
"The point is..."
You should have written "another interesting point that's irrelevant to the topic is..." We're talking about the national economy, not on how individuals can get by with less. (At least until the free money is shut off)
"You can't impose your hatred of frugality on someone else."
You missed the point. I've already praised frugality earlier in this forum. (See here if you missed it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_eASGnqvU0 ) So you don't know what you're talking about. But that's not the point. The point of this post was about the economic future of the country, not about the individual family. Frugality is living within your own means, not living within the rest of taxpayer's means.
"Because it is very expensive for a country to pay for the healthcare and other needs of the elderly, much more expensive than the cost of helping children"
You're conflating expensive with affordable. You can afford the expensive, if you've been economically responsible. The elderly, you refer to, have been working all their lives, and have been paying in to the system that they now depend on. The young, who need far less care now, if trends continue, will not be net payer into said such system. In Israel, the growing young population can support the system, if the growing young population are not a net drain on the economy.
"But you haven't shown that assumption is true. Conjecture."
Same as above. (Though in my experience from American media they never account for this. For example, they compare the income of Kiryas Joel with that of the rest of the country without noting that KJ is much younger than the rest of the country. In fact, KJ is mostly children.)
"You should have written "another interesting point that's irrelevant to the topic is...""
Actually, I did put in parentheses.
"We're talking about the national economy, not on how individuals can get by with less.""The point of this post was about the economic future of the country, not about the individual family. Frugality is living within your own means, not living within the rest of taxpayer's means."
You missed the point. If charedim are satisfied with less then they don't mind if the economy contracts a little, and they aren't living within the rest of the taxpayer's means.
(I don't have access to youtube.)
"The elderly, you refer to, have been working all their lives, and have been paying in to the system that they now depend on."
True, they have been paying in, but not nearly enough to cover the cost of system that they now depend on. For that they rely on the next generation, but since they themself don't have much of a next generation they are trying to shift the burden on to the Chareidim, as you wrote "In Israel, the growing young population can support the system."
Either way, I didn't say Israel itself is facing a crisis.
My main point was that this obsession over helping children ("welfare") is outmoded. Modern societies recognize that an investment in children is an investment in the future, and will enable lower per-capita spending on the elderly in the future.
"Because "asceticism and frugality" doesn't contribute to the economy. It's a mistaken notion to praise someone for "asceticism and frugality" if in truth they survive on handouts. You can't impose your frugality on someone else."
בכחול לבן יקבלו 18.5 מיליון שקלים לפרויקט שבת ישראלית, קהילות רפורמיות וקונסרבטיביות, קהילת הלהט"ב, מדעניות העתיד, תוכניות חונכות ותמיכה במכרזי מחקר ופיתוח בפריפריה, ארכיונים ציבוריים, מרכזי מידע וחדשנות בפריפריה, מינהלת הדרוזים וגרעיני נח"ל. במפלגת העבודה יקבלו 20 מיליון שקלים למרכזי סיוע לנפגעי ונפגעות תקיפה מינית ולמפעלי תרבות בנגב ובגליל.
Irrelevant to the topic. The addition of 18.5 million shekel to the economy by cancelling such anti-Torah programs will not solve the economic question.
With all due respect to the author M's chareidi education (which I share) and "work" in the "financial sector", this post is highly speculative, thinly-supported scaremongering. (For the purposes of establishing credentials only, I have an undergraduate degree in Engineering and in German, a postgraduate diploma in special education and psychology, and over 30 years in education including nearly two decades in senior leadership and management in the secular education sector in the UK.)
In general, I share the view that the chareidi community must become better secularly educated, must change the approach in some sub-sectors (because the chareidi community is far from homogeneous and monolithic) towards engagement with the State, and must become more economically productive, and less dependent upon benefits, in all sectors of the economy.
However, the doom-laden scenario painted by M is more the stuff of horror fiction than of responsible socioeconomic forecasting. His superficial use of simplistic statistics shows poor understanding of the complex issues. Just as one, glaring example: if he can't recognise that 56% of chareidi men being in paid employment already represents a radical sea-change, and one which is growing rapidly - and as a % of a numerically exponentially growing sector of the population! - compared to quite recent times (let alone 14 years ago), which renders his whole argument moot, then he's simply unqualified to comment.
The CBS figures indeed deserve careful analysis, and the chareidi sector indeed needs to urgently promote more outward-looking people to leadership and influence, and to develop organisations and frameworks that promote economic self-sufficiency. But there are already really significant signs of this starting to happen. Early days, to be sure, and no room for complacency.
However, one very positive take-away from that CBS graph that has got M into such a tizz is that it is the chareidim, with their top-of-the-league population rate of increase of growth, who will ensure that Israel remains an overall Jewish state. Take them out of the picture, and the MO and secular Jewish population sectors combined, which have slowing rates of growth, would probably find themselves in a century's time or less living in an Arab-majority state: and it would remain neither democratic nor secular for very long.
Reb Yitzchak, I see a very different picture than you. Israeli charedi society in it's modern incarnation probably can be traced to the Chazon Ish. European Jewry had been decimated by the Holocaust. The Chazon Ish and others felt that all efforts needed to be concentrated on a rebuilding effort. This meant large families and the invention of lengthy full time learning for all.
Fast forward until today, there is an unprecedented amount of learning going on and very large families. Charedim can no longer afford to act like the small persecuted minority that is struggling for survival. It has greatly increased numbers. With greater numbers comes greater collective responsibility to not only look inward, but also outward as well, think about all sections of the Jewish population. It has been is self preservation mode when it's been a long time since it was under threat of extinction. The charedi political parties are still just about one thing - can we obtain a bigger slice of the pie for yeshivos and kollelim. This may have been legitimate when the numbers were small, but not now. I could go on, attitudes need to change and change faster than they are now, and it should come top down, not bottom up.
I agree with most of what you write. I went to some trouble to state explicitly that we need to change and that, while there are some really encouraging signs, it's very early days and there's no room for complacency. My quarrel is only with M's prediction of doom. He seems to extrapolate into the future on the assumption of exponential growth in population and virtually zero significant change in attitudes, education and employment. I recognise the challenge of population growth, but I also discern early but encouraging signs not only of growth in numbers and levels of secular education (and before others jump on me again, yes, I agree that there are still too many chareidi children being denied the benefits of a good secular education; but that doesn't mean that none are getting it), but also signs of an increasing rate of growth. There are respected roshei yeshiva and roshei kollel who are supporting secular education and employment. There are organisations working to improve the opportunities for chareidim to get qualifications and employment. There are organisations working with chareidi high school age yeshivas to improve the standard of secular education that they offer. This is all encouraging. No, it's not yet enough; there needs to be more; we need better leadership; we can't be complacent.
But these developments all militate against the probability of M's doom scenario coming to pass.
"it's modern incarnation probably can be traced to the Chazon Ish. "
That's half of the story. The other half is the deal that Begin made with the Charedim two decades later. Begin's partners turned an elitist institution into a mass movement.
So basically, you agree with the concerns, but you prefer to take an cautiously optimistic approach that focuses on the positive changes in the Charedi world?
Where did you get this from? What does rapidly mean?
"as a % of a numerically exponentially growing sector of the population"
What does that help? How is 50% of two million people better than 50% of one million people? Especially when those 50% don't even make enough to fund the social services the rest of the 50% rely on, hence the whole sector being dependent on the rest of the country to bail them out?
Er, 56% is no sea change - it's only slightly above the level of the past few years. The "significant signs" you point to are too little, too late - the Charedi men of 20 years time have been born already, and the majority of these boys are set to receive a third grade education at best. Even if 70% of Charedi men are employed in two decades' time, without a significant change in their earning capacity (which requires a huge shift in the Charedi education system, which does not look to be on the cards), they will dramatically drive down Israel's GDP per capita.
If you read the article, the actual quote was גפני מוסיף וטוען באשר ל"חרדים העובדים" כי "אין קבוצה כזאת עם מחנה משותף, יש ציבורים גדולים שבחלקם לא לומדים בכולל". His point was that there's no distinct category of 'working charedim.' Which might be right or wrong. But it isn't remotely accurate to claim he said that someone who works isn't a real chredi. In fact, in that very article he *explicitly said the opposite.* בהמשך הראיון, גפני שב ומתייחס לנושא החרדים העובדים ואומר כי "חרדי עובד שנשמע לגדולי ישראל לא משנה איזה חולצה הוא לובש אז אני חושב שהוא חלק מאתנו".
As noted by Shaul Shapira above, his actual statement was that there is no such thing as a distinct "working charedim", as opposed to "learning charedim" class - they are simply Charedim, full stop. More, he said explicitly, direct quote, " אני פועל רבות במשך כל השנה למען אלו שעובדים "ורוצים להישאר חלק מהציבור החרדי ולהישמע לגדולי ישראל.
(I don't know if you were just blindly lifting from an NS post somewhere, Ephraim, but its been noted here before, you cannot trust a word he says unless you verify. Very often he distorts or misrepresents the facts.)
The general Charedi public in Israel. Such nonsense is unacceptable to Torah Jews outside of Israel. If >50% of Charedi men are working, the lies of Gafni will become intolerable. You can't bash more than half of your own constituency with such heresy and get away with it.
" You can't bash more than half of your own constituency with such heresy and get away with it."
Any good dictator will tell you how to do that. With control of the press, the banning of mass forms of dissemination of information, demonisation of the enenemy, control of communication channels and strictly controlled education, it is possible. And Israeli chareidi life has all of those. Even SMS text messaging is banned because it can disseminate information quickly.
Agreed with this, partially. You are right that a free and bi-partisan press is vital to a functioning democracy. But Charedim are a subset of a democracy, and one is free to leave it. It is true that even within this subset, things are sometimes hidden that should be brought to light. (One can debate what those things are.) But media cause a lot of problems, too, and are very susceptible to being used and manipulated for harmful means. It may be worth the cost for general society. But is it worth it for a sub-set of society? Not sure. If NS could control himself to stop the counter-productive charedi bashing, and stick to just a straight up opinion piece, it might be worth reading.
This guy seems like a great big expert in something.
Let's read his words:
As a recent series of articles based on data from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics in the Calcalist newspaper makes clear, the underlying trend with respect to the Charedi population's impact on Israel's economy is deeply alarming.
It's that word 'trend' that is hidden there, so innocently, that got me thinking. This guy is about to explain to us that even though it looks like the trend is on the way up, it is really on the way down.
Let us read further and see how he explains his point:
Firstly, the 56% of Charedi men who work is still dramatically lower than the 87% of non-Charedi men in employment. Furthermore, the average wage for working Charedi men is only 50% of that of non-Charedi Jewish men. Taken together, this means that Charedi men earn only a third as much from work as non-Charedi men do. While the Charedi female employment rate is closer to that of non-Charedim (78% vs 82%), Charedi women continue to earn only 73% of what their non-Charedi counterparts earn. In comparison to the average non-Charedi household, the average Charedi household pays only 30% as much tax but receives 52% more in welfare payments. The educational disparities are similarly steep: only 4% of Charedi men have a high school qualification, in contrast to 87% of non-Charedi men.
Does anyone see the word, or the concept, 'trend' in there? This has nothing to do with any trends at all. It may be true (it may also be bunk statistics, I wouldn't be surprised), but it is not a trend, it does not show a trend and it has nothing to do with the trend.
When we read articles with blatant misdirection and red herrings, we should know what to do with the rest of his words.
Humans were in a Malthusian trap for much of history. That changed due to improved sanitation, modern medicine, increased food production and, eventually, falling fertility rates.
That doesn't change the fact that Malthus was wrong. The world can clearly support more than 10 million people long term. And with space exploration, who knows? There could be trillions of humans given an entire universe.
Yes, but the argument goes that if God wills, Israel could find untapped oil somewhere and be able to afford everything it needs. They found oil in the Med, but did some poor deal with Egypt or something like that re the pipeline.
"In a historic ruling, the High Court of Justice ruled Sunday afternoon that a controversial deal to extract natural gas from massive offshore fields will be canceled within a year unless a central tenet of the agreement is significantly changed or canceled.
The ruling puts a major damper on efforts by the state to approve the agreement with an Israeli-US consortium and override opposition by the state regulator, putting the brakes on a deal touted by the government as having the potential to bring hundreds of millions into state coffers and transform the country into a regional energy powerhouse."
LOL. Of course. Not as though this is the comments section of yet another post about how charedim are a threat to everything good and decent and pure and holy. But tell me more about tznius rallies, you complex-free sage.
Saying "Malthusian" is not a coherent response to dire predictions. Would it be a coherent response to arguing against an individual who consistently borrows more than he earns? Is it coherent response to exponentially increasing the national debt?
Did saying "Mathusian" prevent the collapse of Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme?
"Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense focus on the deteriorating relationship between Israel's various Jewish sectors of late, recently released Charedi employment numbers are ostensibly encouraging. Data from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics shows that the proportion of Charedi men in employment rose to a record 55.8% in the first half of 2023, up from 52.0% in 2015. Presumably driven by the surging cost of living, the Charedi male employment trend is at least pointing in the right direction.
Unfortunately, any sense of relief from this increase is premature. ...
First of all, it should be noted that the underlying trajectory is broadly in line with what has been warned about."
Studies show that doomsday cults tend to claim that the predicted catastrophe is right around the corner. And then the next corner after that.
Also, why are you assuming that charedi trends in the right direction won't escalate? Perhaps because because, as 'Studies show,' 'human beings struggle to grasp the concept of exponential growth'?
"Studies show that doomsday cults tend to claim that the predicted catastrophe is right around the corner. "
Strange that none of these doomsday cults ever predicted the collapse of so many economies around the world. But I guess everything is just honky-dory in Lebanon, because- you know "Malthus".
You brought up doomsday cults; you brought up predictions. I only brought up predictions that the cults didn't make. Specifically, economic disasters that did in fact occur.
Charedi workforce participation is hardly increasing exponentially. As it stands, Charedi men (due to a combination of lower employment rates and lower salaries) now earn 1/3 of what non-Charedi men do. The next generation of Charedi men are right now being given minimal secular education in chadorim and yeshivos. These things all need to change in a massive way very soon to avoid hugely damaging Israel's economic prospects.
Your first sentence isn't related to anything which follows it. And it's likely false, though without actual year over year numbers it's impossible to say. It would have been nice if the author of this post had provided some more graphs.
ב־2019 פורסם לראשונה תחשיב של משרד האוצר, שלפיו אברך שיוצא לעבוד צפוי לאבד בממוצע 5,400 שקל בחודש. שילוב בתחשיב של התוספות הצפויות לקצבאות האברכים וכרטיסי המזון של ש"ס מעלה את הסל לכ־5,800 שקל בחודש. השכר הממוצע לגבר חרדי בשוק העבודה עומד על 9,700 שקל, כלומר אברך שעוזב את הכולל מפסיד בממוצע 60% מהשכר שלו. כאשר בפועל צפוי לו כעובד מתחיל שכר נמוך משמעותית ולכן הוא יקבל תוספת נמוכה מאוד להכנסה, מה שהופך את היציאה לעבודה ללא משתלמת עבורו, לפחות בטווח הקצר.
That seems to me the main issue. Here's a suggestion: Pass a law that exempts charedim from military service, while simultaneously cutting subsidies. Win-win-win.
And stop bemoaning that charedim are having too many kids. That isn't a tactic which has a good track record of success, aside from being incredibly despicable in its own right.
My first instinct is to agree with this post - Charedim should work, shouldn't they? No argument from me there. On second thought, the only ואבדתם מהרה מעל הארץ is for not following the Torah, something that has manifested in history more than once. Why is RNS not concerned about that? If Hashem brought us here after 2000 years of galus miraculously, I believe well be fine.
What surprises me is that Rabbi Slifkin generally looks at issues levelheadedly and without getting carried away and yet when it comes to this issue he's got a blind spot. In the same way he has a knee jerk reaction against conspiracy theories, those who see trump as 100% evil or 100% messiah, and similar such phenomena, so too here the knee jerk reaction should be to be wary of doomsday predictions of a movie style, apocalyptical, societal collapse. History just doesn't seem to work that way. Processes are incremental and slow. societal problems are usually solved organically not by external fiat, with internal pressures leading to gradual adaptation and change. This is how things generally work in the real world.
But the truth is, I don't think Rabbi Slifkin himself really believes this (in the same way that he says that chareidim don't really believe that torah protects but just say they do). If he really believed it he should be on the first boat out of Israel with his family to ensure his kids and grandkids future. Anyone familiar with the Israeli political and societal scene knows that there will not be massive sudden change put on the charedim externally. Its just impossible. So according to the logic of this post the country is 100% doomed.
There are numerous historical examples of countries/empires whose capabilites were degraded over time and then collapsed subsequently. Rome is the most obvious one, but there are more recent cases of countries that have done well for a time and come under huge pressure subsequently. Argentina was in the top 10 of GDP per capita on the eve of WWI - it's now at an undistinguished 128th. The same can happen to Israel.
Argentina is a known outlier. google "argentine paradox". We are discussing what is normal and probable considering general historical trends. not the "paradoxes". There is a vast literature that tries to explain what happened in Argentina.
It's not normal for boys in a first world country to finish their secular education at age 13. The claim that a knowledge-based first world economy can be built on this basis is hardly "normal and probable".
You miss the point. Of course there are specific issues that Israel is dealing with. But every country has its own unique issues (yes, even the first world ones) and yet we see that the historical trend is that they tend to gradually adapt and continue to flourish.
I'm not arguing that no change needs to take place. I'm arguing that the doomsday scaremongering is out of place.
There is no parallel anywhere for a first-world society that raises as many children as possible to be incapable of supporting themselves. It goes against all biological imperative and all sense. And there is every reason to believe that it will end in disaster, bar some enormous change brought on by political pressure.
"If the statistics are right, the Jews constitute but one quarter of one percent of the human race. It suggests a nebulous puff of star dust lost in the blaze of the Milky Way. Properly, the Jew ought hardly to be heard of, but he is heard of, has always been heard of. He is as prominent on the planet as any other people, and his importance is extravagantly out of proportion to the smallness of his bulk."
That is perfectly plausible - if the necessary adaptation occurs. You can't just assume that it will work itself out somehow. The Charedi workers of tomorrow are now starting another year in cheder or yeshiva ketana - their lack of secular education will impact their earning capacity for decades to come.
Rabbi Slifkin married the daughter of a multi-millionaire. Which is why he can galivant around the world chasing animals and hosting gourmet banquets for the wealthy without worrying about parnossoh. He personally has no concerns, and yes, will be on the first boat out if necessary.
Come on. You sound like chareidim in the 1940s shreiking about the מעשה שטן which is bound to collapse. You know that back in the 50s the Reform and Conservative movements believed that Orthodoxy was dying out.
Israel will be fine and the Charedim will hop on board and get jobs. Those who believe in evolution know how communities adapt in order to sustain themselves. The charedim will be less scared as the country becomes more religious and theyll see the light just like the Chilonim realize that the charedim arent going anywhere. Itll take patience but itll happen.
The issue is not just whether they'll get jobs, but what jobs they'll get, without massive changes in the Charedi education system, which have been fiercely resisted to date.
The Charedi workers of future decades are already receiving a sub-standard secular education today. Israel's strength is in knowledge industries (tech in particular). It's extremely difficult for hundreds of thousands of people to make up the huge educational gap they will have to if they are to contribute effectively.
It's one thing for Charedim in Brooklyn or Lakewood to be real estate developers and nursing home operators, but if they're 30%+ of a country's population, the range of necessary skills is much broader.
Theyll end up going to college and getting normal jobs when they dont see an alternative just like they adopted internet. Either that or theyll make programs like Machon Lev.
It's not as easy as that. There's a reason 76% of Charedi men (at least as of 2019) who start the process of studying for an academic degree drop out before obtaining one:
The educational challenge is massive and cannot be solved with handwaving. For the Charedi five year olds of today to be the engineers, doctors and tech entrepreneurs of tomorrow requires a revolution that the Charedim will fight bitterly against.
Indeed. With a good kupp, good in-laws, a little mazal, and God's help, u can make it big (or standard upper mid-class), in real estate and nursing homes. To do so in rocketry or neurosurgery, u need a life-time of education, and maybe even a passion for learning goyishe chachmos. That would involve a generation or 2 of a change in Haredi priorities.
"For the Charedi five year olds of today to be the engineers, doctors and tech entrepreneurs of tomorrow requires a revolution that the Charedim will fight bitterly against."
Maybe not. It's not a revolution, if you engage in revisionism and say that you've never actually been opposed to these things. Especially, since before the late 70s, those things weren't forbidden. And they're not forbidden now outside Israel.
That's why I'm not so pessimistic, it's not about reversing current trends, it's about restoring old ones.
Their entire hashkafa was an adaptation to the times. They were assimilating and closed off in order to survive. Once they wake up to the simple reality that their current way of life dosent work (maybe after a bit of starvation) theyll educate their kids differently and בגרות and צבא will become the norm. The country becoming more accomodating will also be a major factor.
Always interesting to me how people (not saying you, MB, just using this case as useful example) can show signs of intelligence and skepticism and question authority and show awareness of institutional deception when it suits them, but obediently accept "statistics" or equally specious evidence or bow to self-proclaimed experts and resort to name-calling "conspiracy theorists" when it doesn't.
For the precious lemmings, which are small and cute, there are countless debunkers out there quick to tell you that lemming suicide is a myth. Disney faked the video, they tell you. All the other reports for hundreds of years before Disney has been misinterpreted by the experts, they tell you. It hasn't been properly studied, they tell you.
But Covid? Transsexual genes? Anything else? "TRUST THE SCIENCE". We have STATISTICS! We accept the credentialed authorities!
EXCEPT... is HAS been properly studied, and trusting the science is how we know that their mass suicide isn't real. This isn't siding with the debunkers over the scientists, it's siding with the scientists over a commonly accepted myth.
I don't have an opinion about it, but what do you know about CYP17 T -34C allele distribution that led you to a conclusion different than most of those who study it for a living?
I didn't understand the question. I wasn't questioning you specifically, MB, just marveling how people can show such different approaches to issues, depending on what their preconceived opinion is. (On the specific question of lemmings, I claim no expertise, but it appears to me more a question of semantics than anything else. Do they consciously commit "suicide"? No. But they do seem to die in large numbers from the same cause, because of what appears to be an instinct that does not allow them to process that obeying that instinct will lead to certain death. Human, all too human - some would say.)
There's a comment from you earlier in this thread about Charedim and life expectancy. Was there another comment that you believe was illegitimately removed?
Really got the Jeremiah complex, don't you? I've been seeing the same doomsday predictions for at least forty years. At least show some variety, and warn us again about the melting ice caps, the world population exposition, the high Arab birth rate, the coming ice age, and nuclear fallout.
"When a man ceases to believe in God, it isn't the case that ceases to believe in everything - rather, be begins to believe in anything." - Chesterton
Are you insane? Chesterton was a highly respected author, no more an "anti-semite" than you are. Besides, I don't go in for the cancel culture game. If you're reading this blog, you ought to learn the meaning of קבל את האמת ממי שאמרו
Basically the Haredi economy (even in the US) largely runs on arbitrage. I.e. Buying goods and services from one place at one price and selling it for another. That's great when you can be the broker. But when you're a significant part of the population, who creates the actual things?
Thank God the comments here are filled with doomsday prediction haters.
But there is another doomsday prediction we really should worry about: וחרה אף ה' בכם...ואבדתם מהרה מעל הארץ הטובה אשר ה' נתן לכם.
Though surely if such a thing would (God forbid) happen, they would blame it on us...
Surely that 'prediction' is predicated on more profane concepts, like failure to provide parnassah for one's children?
Right. Exactly what the psukim say. השמרו לכם פן יפתה לבבכם וסרתם ועבדתם אלהים אחרים והשתחויתם להם
"A Guest Post about Charedim and the Economy"
Does your guest post come with guest censorship? Or will the previously banned be allowed to comment?
https://irrationalistmodoxism.substack.com/p/the-fallacy-of-economic-catastrophism
====
Edit- Due to my poor educational background, I've been reduced to posting links to other sites. And I only get paid a third of what secular commenters who do the same thing get.
https://irrationalistmodoxism.substack.com/p/oh-no-the-sky-is-falling-again-this
"But, without a revolution in Charedi education and employment, the terrifying alternative is change only occurring when there are tens of millions of Charedim living in ramshackle accommodation with a Somalia-like life expectancy amidst marauding Iran-backed militias, and anyone who is able to has left the country already. "
Won't they all be dead already from coronavirus and rat-borne diseases?
https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/ten-times
https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/bnei-braks-rats
https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/mazeltov-murder-tonight
You know nobody clicks on all the links you post, right?
Special for you. More links.
http://rationalistjudaism.blogspot.com/2012/06/other-siyum-hashas.html
"In an earlier post... I lamented the fact that the enormous Siyum HaShas organized by Agudas Yisroel is always a promo for Daas Torah instead of giving proper honor to the true heroes of Daf Yomi. I am glad to see that this time, there is an alternative. The New York Modern Orthodox community is organizing a two-part celebration. ....
'Participants will then gather for the siyum ceremony. Various rabbinic luminaries will speak at the ceremony, but the focus will be on the magidei shiurim (those who teach the daf on a daily basis), the daily attendees of these classes, and those who are actually making the siyum. These people, men and women, young and old, will perform the siyum, read the Kaddish, and share words with the community.'
It's good to see that there are people who know how to give honor where honor is due."
=====
And make sure to click through to the exciting alternative siyum hashas page http://siyumhashas12.com/ for much enlightening and inspiring content!
Thanks for the memories!
My first siyum hashas was in Nassau Coliseum in 1997. Fantastic. Amazing Achdut.
I love going back; now with my kids. The next one will be about 1.5weeks after my youngest becomes Bar Mitzvah.
"It's good to see that there are people who know how to give honor where honor is due."
That's wonderful - wouldn't you agree?(Sorry, I still didn't click on the link.)
Even more ridiculous, I remember a few months ago there was a big rally in some arena near Lakewood featuring many sweaty speeches, long tables with endless bottles of Coke to "celebrate" Torah and be "mechazeik" something or another. It was all very self-congragulatory; the only thing missing was an apparent purpose.
"It was all very self-congragulatory; the only thing missing was an apparent purpose."
Maybe that was because you couldn't be bothered to check? If simply clicking links is too much effort for you, my guess is you probably aren't terribly investigative.
Maybe you should offer a brief summary of what your link covers. Why else should I bother?
You don't need to bother. Only if you want to. https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/shteiging-into-the-abyss/comment/36648437
https://irrationalistmodoxism.substack.com/p/i-was-wrong-and-im-sorry/comment/36649066
"I know for a fact that people click the links, I can see it on my end."
False
No. I don't know that. How would you know either way?
But I don't especially care if people click on them. I provide them mainly as sources in case people want to double-check what I'm referring to.
It’s always interesting to see self-proclaimed experts who haven’t the slightest clue about the distinctions between the Chareidi economy and the Chiloni economy. For example, this post is self-contradictory. If the Chareidi population grew by 71% in 14 years then most chareidi adults are below 35 years old. Therefore, it is quite astounding that Chareidi women earn 73% of what their non-Charedi counterparts earn, despite their young age. Even the earning power of Chareidi men makes sense considering their young age, combined with the fact that they are initially restricted by the government from working and the private sector discriminates against them (and the general tendency of Chareidim for asceticism and frugality).
In addition, much ado is made about the cost of funding Chareidi youth (“receives 52% more in welfare payments”). However, no mention was made about the cost of funding the many elderly Chilonim. Funding the elderly is well known to be a looming crisis in much of the developed world. Additionally, no mention was made about the other parts of the government budget which is funneled mainly towards chilonim.
These are just a few of the article’s glaring omissions. Clearly, the author is not interested in the truth but only on making bombastic doomsday predictions.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. What are the numerical relationships between the "many" elderly Chilonim (who presumably already contributed to the system) and the "most chareidi adults are below 35 years old" (who presumably contribute far less to the system- and may actually be net recipients).
"Therefore, it is quite astounding that Chareidi women earn 73% of what their non-Charedi counterparts earn, despite their young age."
What do you mean by counterpart? You mentioned "young age"- but if they're younger than their counterparts, then they're not really counterparts, are they? What evidence do have that this particular statistic was flawed by committing such an elementary error?
"and the general tendency of Chareidim for asceticism and frugality"
I've already pointed this out before. But it's irrelevant to the matter at hand- the economic future of the nation. Because "asceticism and frugality" doesn't contribute to the economy. It's a mistaken notion to praise someone for "asceticism and frugality" if in truth they survive on handouts. You can't impose your frugality on someone else. If you live within your means- that could be frugality. If you live on someone else's means- that could be extravagance.
"Funding the elderly is well known to be a looming crisis in much of the developed world."
Why? Because there's not enough young people? Or not enough tax-paying young people?
" Because "asceticism and frugality" doesn't contribute to the economy. It's a mistaken notion to praise someone for "asceticism and frugality" if in truth they survive on handouts. You can't impose your frugality on someone else."
From Yesh Atid's Lahatabi-lobby. Apparently he's now the arbiter on what's moral for charedim to do.
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/r1uhusqm2
ח"כ יוראי להב-הרצנו (יש עתיד) ביקר בחריפות את מתווה הגיוס החדש: "מעל הכול זו חרפה מוסרית. העובדה שחלק מהצעירים ישרתו את המדינה וחלק לא, היא בלתי מתקבלת על הדעת. אני תומך בכך שכל צעיר וצעירה במדינת ישראל - חרדים, חילונים, דתיים, ערבים ויהודים - כולם צריכים לשרת את המדינה ולתרום את חלקם, על מנת שנוכל לקיים פה חברה ביחד".
הוא ציין: "לא יכול להיות שהממשלה הזו תפגע בערך השוויון בצורה כל כך קיצונית. המתווה המוצע שנותן פטור לכולם הוא תעודת הפטירה הרשמית של צבא העם. אני חושב שהעיקרון הבסיסי צריך להיות שכולם משרתים את המדינה - שירות צבאי, לאומי או אזרחי - בהתאם לצורכי הביטחון של מדינת ישראל".
Mind you, this isn't about the continued ability of Israel existence as anything. It's simple culture warriorship. Lapid and Co are whining that their social engineering project might get derailed. And you wonder why charedim might be a bit suspicious about attempts to get them to 'contribute?' Like, maybe there's some ulterior motives behind it beyond simple dry economic forecasts which need balanced ledgers?
ראש האופוזיציה יאיר לפיד תקף היום (שני) את תוכנית השירות הצבאי החדשה של צה"ל, שבמרכזה הורדת גיל הפטור מגיוס לצה"ל לחרדים, בתמורה לתגמול כספי לחיילים בתפקידים משמעותיים. "לחוק הגיוס שהממשלה דוחפת יש משמעות אחת - סופו של צבא העם", אמר.
לדבריו, "רק הילדים שלנו יתגייסו לצבא. רק הילדים שלנו יתנו שלוש שנים. רק הילדים שלנו יסכנו את חייהם. מי שלא יתגייס, יגדילו לו את הקצבאות, ורק הילדים שלנו יצטרכו להיות הפראיירים שעובדים ומשלמים מיסים. זה לא חוק גיוס, זו כניעה ללא תנאי להשתמטות ולסרבנות. זה ויתור על הערכים שעליהם קמה מדינת ישראל"
Of course, of course. Who can imagine the sheer terror Tommy Lapid must have felt with when thinking of his boy Yair's incredibly dangerous mission of..... writing combative articles in Bamachaneh newspaper. He was literally risking life and limb.
Sorry, but the leader of Israel's opposition is morally bankrupt, and in no position to lecture charedim about anything, except perhaps on how to put on make-up when appearing on TV.
Who cares about whether Lapid is a hypocrite or not? WHat matters is the situation and the arguments, not the people who state them.
"Who cares about whether Lapid is a hypocrite or not? WHat matters is the situation and the arguments, not the people who state them."
For one thing, YOU do:
https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/the-most-staggering-deception-and
"I'm not going to get into them here, but what I'd like to marvel at is the sheer dishonesty of the organization spearheading the fight against any change."
Note that you explicitly prefaced that by saying that you aren't weighing in on the merits of the issue:
"Most people have a knee-jerk reaction to this question, but there are in fact complicated issues and reasonable arguments to be made."
Oh , and then there's this beauty:
https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/who-should-decide-shabbat-electricity
"I have absolutely no idea whether the State of Israel should be generating electricity on Shabbat or not. I do not know how the halachic issues involved relate to the technological and societal issues.
"But there’s one thing that I know with certainty: the charedi MKs are absolutely not qualified to make this demand.
...
To weigh in on this question, let alone give an authoritative demand, requires knowledge of, and sensitivity to, a broad range of factors and considerations. And this is something that charedim, by definition, simply lack.
....
"It’s just a joke to think that such people, who are so detached from reality and from responsibility and from national consciousness, are in a position to say what the state should do on anything at all."
Irrelevant to the topic. Lapid could become a Charedi tomorrow, and the economic question would still be unanswered.
Yes on situation, no on arguments. How does one know when an immoral person is lying? When one can hear them speaking.
Not true. When a person complaining about A is a known liar, or is ignoring equal or worse problems in the world of B and C, it's a good indication that his alleged "concerns" are politically motivated and not actually grounded in reality. To illustrate, if someone only worries about Charedim and not about:
The low secular birthrate
The pitiful ignorance of Judaism among same
The alarmingly high degree of dropouts among DL
The near extinction of Zionism among the left
And more, then you can confidently dismiss whatever that guy is saying about Charedim. He's either lying or misrepresenting or in all events, losing the forest for the trees.
Irrelevant to the topic. Pointing to nefarious agendas does not solve the economic question.
Irrelevant to the topic. Lapid is an idiot without the simplest grasp of economic fundamentals. That's the stuff that might be relevant here.
Your critique of Lapid has no bearing on the question of the economic sustainability of the nation.
I replied here: https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/shteiging-into-the-abyss/comment/36716649
Irrelevant to the topic. The topic is the economic future of the nation, not Lapid's agenda. It would be on topic to show that Lapid is a moron when it comes to basic economic theory. (And Smotrich is another economic moron.)
I replied here: https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/shteiging-into-the-abyss/comment/36716649
I didn't undertand your first question. Please word it clearer.
"may actually be net recipients." The key word here is may. All this is pure conjecture with no serious analysis of the facts.
"What do you mean by counterpart?" I guess you didn't realize but that half of the sentence was just a quote from the post above.
"You mentioned "young age"- but if they're younger than their counterparts, then they're not really counterparts, are they?" That is exactly my point. This post is comparing apples to oranges because the author does not recognize the basic differences between Chareidim and Chilonim.
"But it's irrelevant to the matter at hand- the economic future of the nation." Of course it's relevant. The point is that chareidim earn less not due to a lack of education or anything of the sort, but simply because they have less needs. You can't impose your hatred of frugality on someone else.
"Why?" Because it is very expensive for a country to pay for the healthcare and other needs of the elderly, much more expensive than the cost of helping children ("welfare").
What is so complicated? Did you really read what I wrote?
" pure conjecture "
That is what you're doing.
" That is exactly my point."
You assumed that the comparison didn't take into account age difference. But you haven't shown that assumption is true. Conjecture.
"Of course it's relevant."
And in the following sentences, you haven't shown relevancy.
"The point is..."
You should have written "another interesting point that's irrelevant to the topic is..." We're talking about the national economy, not on how individuals can get by with less. (At least until the free money is shut off)
"You can't impose your hatred of frugality on someone else."
You missed the point. I've already praised frugality earlier in this forum. (See here if you missed it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_eASGnqvU0 ) So you don't know what you're talking about. But that's not the point. The point of this post was about the economic future of the country, not about the individual family. Frugality is living within your own means, not living within the rest of taxpayer's means.
"Because it is very expensive for a country to pay for the healthcare and other needs of the elderly, much more expensive than the cost of helping children"
You're conflating expensive with affordable. You can afford the expensive, if you've been economically responsible. The elderly, you refer to, have been working all their lives, and have been paying in to the system that they now depend on. The young, who need far less care now, if trends continue, will not be net payer into said such system. In Israel, the growing young population can support the system, if the growing young population are not a net drain on the economy.
"You assumed that the comparison didn't take into account age difference. But you haven't shown that assumption is true."
The graph in the article that the post linked to is titled הכנסה ממוצעת ברוטו לחודש בקרב בני 64-25.
"" pure conjecture " "That is what you're doing."
Ok, so we are on the same boat.
"But you haven't shown that assumption is true. Conjecture."
Same as above. (Though in my experience from American media they never account for this. For example, they compare the income of Kiryas Joel with that of the rest of the country without noting that KJ is much younger than the rest of the country. In fact, KJ is mostly children.)
"You should have written "another interesting point that's irrelevant to the topic is...""
Actually, I did put in parentheses.
"We're talking about the national economy, not on how individuals can get by with less.""The point of this post was about the economic future of the country, not about the individual family. Frugality is living within your own means, not living within the rest of taxpayer's means."
You missed the point. If charedim are satisfied with less then they don't mind if the economy contracts a little, and they aren't living within the rest of the taxpayer's means.
(I don't have access to youtube.)
"The elderly, you refer to, have been working all their lives, and have been paying in to the system that they now depend on."
True, they have been paying in, but not nearly enough to cover the cost of system that they now depend on. For that they rely on the next generation, but since they themself don't have much of a next generation they are trying to shift the burden on to the Chareidim, as you wrote "In Israel, the growing young population can support the system."
Sorry, that doesn't fly.
Non-Charedi Jewish women in Israel have a fertility rate of 2.6 (see page 16 of the following report: https://www.idi.org.il/media/18254/demographic-trends-and-participation-in-the-workforce-an-analysis-of-the-ultra-orthodox-sector-in-israel.pdf), well above any other OECD country's fertility rate, and far above the level of countries that have a real issue with their dependency ratio.
Either way, I didn't say Israel itself is facing a crisis.
My main point was that this obsession over helping children ("welfare") is outmoded. Modern societies recognize that an investment in children is an investment in the future, and will enable lower per-capita spending on the elderly in the future.
How many of them are yordim?
"Because "asceticism and frugality" doesn't contribute to the economy. It's a mistaken notion to praise someone for "asceticism and frugality" if in truth they survive on handouts. You can't impose your frugality on someone else."
of course you can.
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/5306127
בכחול לבן יקבלו 18.5 מיליון שקלים לפרויקט שבת ישראלית, קהילות רפורמיות וקונסרבטיביות, קהילת הלהט"ב, מדעניות העתיד, תוכניות חונכות ותמיכה במכרזי מחקר ופיתוח בפריפריה, ארכיונים ציבוריים, מרכזי מידע וחדשנות בפריפריה, מינהלת הדרוזים וגרעיני נח"ל. במפלגת העבודה יקבלו 20 מיליון שקלים למרכזי סיוע לנפגעי ונפגעות תקיפה מינית ולמפעלי תרבות בנגב ובגליל.
Irrelevant to the topic. The addition of 18.5 million shekel to the economy by cancelling such anti-Torah programs will not solve the economic question.
I replied here: https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/shteiging-into-the-abyss/comment/36716649
With all due respect to the author M's chareidi education (which I share) and "work" in the "financial sector", this post is highly speculative, thinly-supported scaremongering. (For the purposes of establishing credentials only, I have an undergraduate degree in Engineering and in German, a postgraduate diploma in special education and psychology, and over 30 years in education including nearly two decades in senior leadership and management in the secular education sector in the UK.)
In general, I share the view that the chareidi community must become better secularly educated, must change the approach in some sub-sectors (because the chareidi community is far from homogeneous and monolithic) towards engagement with the State, and must become more economically productive, and less dependent upon benefits, in all sectors of the economy.
However, the doom-laden scenario painted by M is more the stuff of horror fiction than of responsible socioeconomic forecasting. His superficial use of simplistic statistics shows poor understanding of the complex issues. Just as one, glaring example: if he can't recognise that 56% of chareidi men being in paid employment already represents a radical sea-change, and one which is growing rapidly - and as a % of a numerically exponentially growing sector of the population! - compared to quite recent times (let alone 14 years ago), which renders his whole argument moot, then he's simply unqualified to comment.
The CBS figures indeed deserve careful analysis, and the chareidi sector indeed needs to urgently promote more outward-looking people to leadership and influence, and to develop organisations and frameworks that promote economic self-sufficiency. But there are already really significant signs of this starting to happen. Early days, to be sure, and no room for complacency.
However, one very positive take-away from that CBS graph that has got M into such a tizz is that it is the chareidim, with their top-of-the-league population rate of increase of growth, who will ensure that Israel remains an overall Jewish state. Take them out of the picture, and the MO and secular Jewish population sectors combined, which have slowing rates of growth, would probably find themselves in a century's time or less living in an Arab-majority state: and it would remain neither democratic nor secular for very long.
Reb Yitzchak, I see a very different picture than you. Israeli charedi society in it's modern incarnation probably can be traced to the Chazon Ish. European Jewry had been decimated by the Holocaust. The Chazon Ish and others felt that all efforts needed to be concentrated on a rebuilding effort. This meant large families and the invention of lengthy full time learning for all.
Fast forward until today, there is an unprecedented amount of learning going on and very large families. Charedim can no longer afford to act like the small persecuted minority that is struggling for survival. It has greatly increased numbers. With greater numbers comes greater collective responsibility to not only look inward, but also outward as well, think about all sections of the Jewish population. It has been is self preservation mode when it's been a long time since it was under threat of extinction. The charedi political parties are still just about one thing - can we obtain a bigger slice of the pie for yeshivos and kollelim. This may have been legitimate when the numbers were small, but not now. I could go on, attitudes need to change and change faster than they are now, and it should come top down, not bottom up.
I agree with most of what you write. I went to some trouble to state explicitly that we need to change and that, while there are some really encouraging signs, it's very early days and there's no room for complacency. My quarrel is only with M's prediction of doom. He seems to extrapolate into the future on the assumption of exponential growth in population and virtually zero significant change in attitudes, education and employment. I recognise the challenge of population growth, but I also discern early but encouraging signs not only of growth in numbers and levels of secular education (and before others jump on me again, yes, I agree that there are still too many chareidi children being denied the benefits of a good secular education; but that doesn't mean that none are getting it), but also signs of an increasing rate of growth. There are respected roshei yeshiva and roshei kollel who are supporting secular education and employment. There are organisations working to improve the opportunities for chareidim to get qualifications and employment. There are organisations working with chareidi high school age yeshivas to improve the standard of secular education that they offer. This is all encouraging. No, it's not yet enough; there needs to be more; we need better leadership; we can't be complacent.
But these developments all militate against the probability of M's doom scenario coming to pass.
"it's modern incarnation probably can be traced to the Chazon Ish. "
That's half of the story. The other half is the deal that Begin made with the Charedim two decades later. Begin's partners turned an elitist institution into a mass movement.
He made it... With the Chazon Ish.
It started with the Chazon Ish's famous meeting with Ben Gurion
So basically, you agree with the concerns, but you prefer to take an cautiously optimistic approach that focuses on the positive changes in the Charedi world?
Yes.
"one which is growing rapidly"
Where did you get this from? What does rapidly mean?
"as a % of a numerically exponentially growing sector of the population"
What does that help? How is 50% of two million people better than 50% of one million people? Especially when those 50% don't even make enough to fund the social services the rest of the 50% rely on, hence the whole sector being dependent on the rest of the country to bail them out?
Er, 56% is no sea change - it's only slightly above the level of the past few years. The "significant signs" you point to are too little, too late - the Charedi men of 20 years time have been born already, and the majority of these boys are set to receive a third grade education at best. Even if 70% of Charedi men are employed in two decades' time, without a significant change in their earning capacity (which requires a huge shift in the Charedi education system, which does not look to be on the cards), they will dramatically drive down Israel's GDP per capita.
Maybe the distinction is that as that number creeps upward, lies by Gafni that working people are not "real Charedim" will longer be tolerated.
Where did Gafni - any Gafni - say that working people weren't "real Charedim"?
Kikar Shabbat: ח"כ משה גפני בראיון: "אין דבר כזה חרדים עובדים"
https://www.kikar.co.il/haredim-news/161675
If you read the article, the actual quote was גפני מוסיף וטוען באשר ל"חרדים העובדים" כי "אין קבוצה כזאת עם מחנה משותף, יש ציבורים גדולים שבחלקם לא לומדים בכולל". His point was that there's no distinct category of 'working charedim.' Which might be right or wrong. But it isn't remotely accurate to claim he said that someone who works isn't a real chredi. In fact, in that very article he *explicitly said the opposite.* בהמשך הראיון, גפני שב ומתייחס לנושא החרדים העובדים ואומר כי "חרדי עובד שנשמע לגדולי ישראל לא משנה איזה חולצה הוא לובש אז אני חושב שהוא חלק מאתנו".
As noted by Shaul Shapira above, his actual statement was that there is no such thing as a distinct "working charedim", as opposed to "learning charedim" class - they are simply Charedim, full stop. More, he said explicitly, direct quote, " אני פועל רבות במשך כל השנה למען אלו שעובדים "ורוצים להישאר חלק מהציבור החרדי ולהישמע לגדולי ישראל.
(I don't know if you were just blindly lifting from an NS post somewhere, Ephraim, but its been noted here before, you cannot trust a word he says unless you verify. Very often he distorts or misrepresents the facts.)
Tolerated by whom?
The general Charedi public in Israel. Such nonsense is unacceptable to Torah Jews outside of Israel. If >50% of Charedi men are working, the lies of Gafni will become intolerable. You can't bash more than half of your own constituency with such heresy and get away with it.
He didn't bash them. https://www.rationalistjudaism.com/p/shteiging-into-the-abyss/comment/36717109
" You can't bash more than half of your own constituency with such heresy and get away with it."
Any good dictator will tell you how to do that. With control of the press, the banning of mass forms of dissemination of information, demonisation of the enenemy, control of communication channels and strictly controlled education, it is possible. And Israeli chareidi life has all of those. Even SMS text messaging is banned because it can disseminate information quickly.
Agreed with this, partially. You are right that a free and bi-partisan press is vital to a functioning democracy. But Charedim are a subset of a democracy, and one is free to leave it. It is true that even within this subset, things are sometimes hidden that should be brought to light. (One can debate what those things are.) But media cause a lot of problems, too, and are very susceptible to being used and manipulated for harmful means. It may be worth the cost for general society. But is it worth it for a sub-set of society? Not sure. If NS could control himself to stop the counter-productive charedi bashing, and stick to just a straight up opinion piece, it might be worth reading.
This guy seems like a great big expert in something.
Let's read his words:
As a recent series of articles based on data from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics in the Calcalist newspaper makes clear, the underlying trend with respect to the Charedi population's impact on Israel's economy is deeply alarming.
It's that word 'trend' that is hidden there, so innocently, that got me thinking. This guy is about to explain to us that even though it looks like the trend is on the way up, it is really on the way down.
Let us read further and see how he explains his point:
Firstly, the 56% of Charedi men who work is still dramatically lower than the 87% of non-Charedi men in employment. Furthermore, the average wage for working Charedi men is only 50% of that of non-Charedi Jewish men. Taken together, this means that Charedi men earn only a third as much from work as non-Charedi men do. While the Charedi female employment rate is closer to that of non-Charedim (78% vs 82%), Charedi women continue to earn only 73% of what their non-Charedi counterparts earn. In comparison to the average non-Charedi household, the average Charedi household pays only 30% as much tax but receives 52% more in welfare payments. The educational disparities are similarly steep: only 4% of Charedi men have a high school qualification, in contrast to 87% of non-Charedi men.
Does anyone see the word, or the concept, 'trend' in there? This has nothing to do with any trends at all. It may be true (it may also be bunk statistics, I wouldn't be surprised), but it is not a trend, it does not show a trend and it has nothing to do with the trend.
When we read articles with blatant misdirection and red herrings, we should know what to do with the rest of his words.
The trend it shows is that Haredi integration into the economy and associated earnings is not aligned with the trend of Haredi population growth.
A trend, much like a triangle or a mezuman, requires three numbers.
This post has precisely one.
That is not a trend, just someone's comparison.i
Some say it can be established by two. Its debated in (as they say) "the literature."
Very Malthusian
Humans were in a Malthusian trap for much of history. That changed due to improved sanitation, modern medicine, increased food production and, eventually, falling fertility rates.
That doesn't change the fact that Malthus was wrong. The world can clearly support more than 10 million people long term. And with space exploration, who knows? There could be trillions of humans given an entire universe.
Yes, but the argument goes that if God wills, Israel could find untapped oil somewhere and be able to afford everything it needs. They found oil in the Med, but did some poor deal with Egypt or something like that re the pipeline.
"They found oil in the Med, but did some poor deal with Egypt or something like that re the pipeline."
That wasn't the charedim's fault......
https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-court-torpedoes-massive-gas-deal-in-historic-ruling/
"In a historic ruling, the High Court of Justice ruled Sunday afternoon that a controversial deal to extract natural gas from massive offshore fields will be canceled within a year unless a central tenet of the agreement is significantly changed or canceled.
The ruling puts a major damper on efforts by the state to approve the agreement with an Israeli-US consortium and override opposition by the state regulator, putting the brakes on a deal touted by the government as having the potential to bring hundreds of millions into state coffers and transform the country into a regional energy powerhouse."
Yet another reason to rein in the court....
I didn't say it was the charedim's fault. Somebody has a bit of a complex.
LOL. Of course. Not as though this is the comments section of yet another post about how charedim are a threat to everything good and decent and pure and holy. But tell me more about tznius rallies, you complex-free sage.
G-d could just send Manna. You don't need to make it complicated.
Yes, but He does prefer derech hatevah.
He's not limited to derech hateva, though.
Didn't the Jews say, why did you take us out of Egypt, so we could die in the midbar? They were being Malthusian too.
When's the last time Hashem provided the Jews with Mannah, figuratively or literally?
If God wills it, Burundi can have the GDP per capita of Switzerland. That's hardly an argument.
Indeed. It's not my argument, it's the chareidi line.
The chareidi argument is not that G-d will always make people happy.
Right! Sometimes God's will is that Jews die of starvation in the street. We r not too happy when he does that!
Saying "Malthusian" is not a coherent response to dire predictions. Would it be a coherent response to arguing against an individual who consistently borrows more than he earns? Is it coherent response to exponentially increasing the national debt?
Did saying "Mathusian" prevent the collapse of Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme?
Did you mean to ask me for my complete response to your question, posted as a guest post, without editing, on your substack?
No. Did attempting to whip up anti-charedi hatred stop the bus bombings?
"Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense focus on the deteriorating relationship between Israel's various Jewish sectors of late, recently released Charedi employment numbers are ostensibly encouraging. Data from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics shows that the proportion of Charedi men in employment rose to a record 55.8% in the first half of 2023, up from 52.0% in 2015. Presumably driven by the surging cost of living, the Charedi male employment trend is at least pointing in the right direction.
Unfortunately, any sense of relief from this increase is premature. ...
First of all, it should be noted that the underlying trajectory is broadly in line with what has been warned about."
Studies show that doomsday cults tend to claim that the predicted catastrophe is right around the corner. And then the next corner after that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
Also, why are you assuming that charedi trends in the right direction won't escalate? Perhaps because because, as 'Studies show,' 'human beings struggle to grasp the concept of exponential growth'?
"Studies show that doomsday cults tend to claim that the predicted catastrophe is right around the corner. "
Strange that none of these doomsday cults ever predicted the collapse of so many economies around the world. But I guess everything is just honky-dory in Lebanon, because- you know "Malthus".
Why not show us some math?
"Strange that none of these doomsday cults ever predicted the collapse of so many economies around the world."
Which predictions are you referring to?
You brought up doomsday cults; you brought up predictions. I only brought up predictions that the cults didn't make. Specifically, economic disasters that did in fact occur.
*Which* predictions are you referring to? I'e. the ones you say occurred.
Charedi workforce participation is hardly increasing exponentially. As it stands, Charedi men (due to a combination of lower employment rates and lower salaries) now earn 1/3 of what non-Charedi men do. The next generation of Charedi men are right now being given minimal secular education in chadorim and yeshivos. These things all need to change in a massive way very soon to avoid hugely damaging Israel's economic prospects.
Your first sentence isn't related to anything which follows it. And it's likely false, though without actual year over year numbers it's impossible to say. It would have been nice if the author of this post had provided some more graphs.
The Calcalist series linked to in the post has lots of charts. Regarding the Charedi male employment trend, see the chart here:
https://pic1.calcalist.co.il/picserver3/crop_images/2023/08/05/HkWEJJ2on/HkWEJJ2on_0_0_3000_1690_0_large.jpg
Graph is very fuzzy. Can you provide a link to the article?
https://m.calcalist.co.il/Article.aspx?guid=hyt11wx2sn
Thanks. From the article:
ב־2019 פורסם לראשונה תחשיב של משרד האוצר, שלפיו אברך שיוצא לעבוד צפוי לאבד בממוצע 5,400 שקל בחודש. שילוב בתחשיב של התוספות הצפויות לקצבאות האברכים וכרטיסי המזון של ש"ס מעלה את הסל לכ־5,800 שקל בחודש. השכר הממוצע לגבר חרדי בשוק העבודה עומד על 9,700 שקל, כלומר אברך שעוזב את הכולל מפסיד בממוצע 60% מהשכר שלו. כאשר בפועל צפוי לו כעובד מתחיל שכר נמוך משמעותית ולכן הוא יקבל תוספת נמוכה מאוד להכנסה, מה שהופך את היציאה לעבודה ללא משתלמת עבורו, לפחות בטווח הקצר.
That seems to me the main issue. Here's a suggestion: Pass a law that exempts charedim from military service, while simultaneously cutting subsidies. Win-win-win.
And stop bemoaning that charedim are having too many kids. That isn't a tactic which has a good track record of success, aside from being incredibly despicable in its own right.
My first instinct is to agree with this post - Charedim should work, shouldn't they? No argument from me there. On second thought, the only ואבדתם מהרה מעל הארץ is for not following the Torah, something that has manifested in history more than once. Why is RNS not concerned about that? If Hashem brought us here after 2000 years of galus miraculously, I believe well be fine.
What surprises me is that Rabbi Slifkin generally looks at issues levelheadedly and without getting carried away and yet when it comes to this issue he's got a blind spot. In the same way he has a knee jerk reaction against conspiracy theories, those who see trump as 100% evil or 100% messiah, and similar such phenomena, so too here the knee jerk reaction should be to be wary of doomsday predictions of a movie style, apocalyptical, societal collapse. History just doesn't seem to work that way. Processes are incremental and slow. societal problems are usually solved organically not by external fiat, with internal pressures leading to gradual adaptation and change. This is how things generally work in the real world.
But the truth is, I don't think Rabbi Slifkin himself really believes this (in the same way that he says that chareidim don't really believe that torah protects but just say they do). If he really believed it he should be on the first boat out of Israel with his family to ensure his kids and grandkids future. Anyone familiar with the Israeli political and societal scene knows that there will not be massive sudden change put on the charedim externally. Its just impossible. So according to the logic of this post the country is 100% doomed.
There are numerous historical examples of countries/empires whose capabilites were degraded over time and then collapsed subsequently. Rome is the most obvious one, but there are more recent cases of countries that have done well for a time and come under huge pressure subsequently. Argentina was in the top 10 of GDP per capita on the eve of WWI - it's now at an undistinguished 128th. The same can happen to Israel.
Argentina is a known outlier. google "argentine paradox". We are discussing what is normal and probable considering general historical trends. not the "paradoxes". There is a vast literature that tries to explain what happened in Argentina.
Any good examples within the last millennia?
It's not normal for boys in a first world country to finish their secular education at age 13. The claim that a knowledge-based first world economy can be built on this basis is hardly "normal and probable".
You miss the point. Of course there are specific issues that Israel is dealing with. But every country has its own unique issues (yes, even the first world ones) and yet we see that the historical trend is that they tend to gradually adapt and continue to flourish.
I'm not arguing that no change needs to take place. I'm arguing that the doomsday scaremongering is out of place.
There is no parallel anywhere for a first-world society that raises as many children as possible to be incapable of supporting themselves. It goes against all biological imperative and all sense. And there is every reason to believe that it will end in disaster, bar some enormous change brought on by political pressure.
"If the statistics are right, the Jews constitute but one quarter of one percent of the human race. It suggests a nebulous puff of star dust lost in the blaze of the Milky Way. Properly, the Jew ought hardly to be heard of, but he is heard of, has always been heard of. He is as prominent on the planet as any other people, and his importance is extravagantly out of proportion to the smallness of his bulk."
Could u please re-write your 1st sentence without a double negative? I cannot follow it.
That is perfectly plausible - if the necessary adaptation occurs. You can't just assume that it will work itself out somehow. The Charedi workers of tomorrow are now starting another year in cheder or yeshiva ketana - their lack of secular education will impact their earning capacity for decades to come.
Now I'm confused - what do you think we are arguing about?
Rabbi Slifkin married the daughter of a multi-millionaire. Which is why he can galivant around the world chasing animals and hosting gourmet banquets for the wealthy without worrying about parnossoh. He personally has no concerns, and yes, will be on the first boat out if necessary.
Jealous much?
Come on. You sound like chareidim in the 1940s shreiking about the מעשה שטן which is bound to collapse. You know that back in the 50s the Reform and Conservative movements believed that Orthodoxy was dying out.
Israel will be fine and the Charedim will hop on board and get jobs. Those who believe in evolution know how communities adapt in order to sustain themselves. The charedim will be less scared as the country becomes more religious and theyll see the light just like the Chilonim realize that the charedim arent going anywhere. Itll take patience but itll happen.
The issue is not just whether they'll get jobs, but what jobs they'll get, without massive changes in the Charedi education system, which have been fiercely resisted to date.
The Charedi workers of future decades are already receiving a sub-standard secular education today. Israel's strength is in knowledge industries (tech in particular). It's extremely difficult for hundreds of thousands of people to make up the huge educational gap they will have to if they are to contribute effectively.
It's one thing for Charedim in Brooklyn or Lakewood to be real estate developers and nursing home operators, but if they're 30%+ of a country's population, the range of necessary skills is much broader.
Theyll end up going to college and getting normal jobs when they dont see an alternative just like they adopted internet. Either that or theyll make programs like Machon Lev.
It's not as easy as that. There's a reason 76% of Charedi men (at least as of 2019) who start the process of studying for an academic degree drop out before obtaining one:
https://m.calcalist.co.il/Article.aspx?guid=3761631
The educational challenge is massive and cannot be solved with handwaving. For the Charedi five year olds of today to be the engineers, doctors and tech entrepreneurs of tomorrow requires a revolution that the Charedim will fight bitterly against.
Indeed. With a good kupp, good in-laws, a little mazal, and God's help, u can make it big (or standard upper mid-class), in real estate and nursing homes. To do so in rocketry or neurosurgery, u need a life-time of education, and maybe even a passion for learning goyishe chachmos. That would involve a generation or 2 of a change in Haredi priorities.
"For the Charedi five year olds of today to be the engineers, doctors and tech entrepreneurs of tomorrow requires a revolution that the Charedim will fight bitterly against."
Maybe not. It's not a revolution, if you engage in revisionism and say that you've never actually been opposed to these things. Especially, since before the late 70s, those things weren't forbidden. And they're not forbidden now outside Israel.
That's why I'm not so pessimistic, it's not about reversing current trends, it's about restoring old ones.
Halevai. I don't see the Aguda and Degel Moetzes members getting behind secular education for high school boys any time soon.
Theyll start starving and adapt
Except no such thing happened historically to observant yidden.
They just lost observance if they needed to. Great.
I have no idea on what basis you think this will happen.
Their entire hashkafa was an adaptation to the times. They were assimilating and closed off in order to survive. Once they wake up to the simple reality that their current way of life dosent work (maybe after a bit of starvation) theyll educate their kids differently and בגרות and צבא will become the norm. The country becoming more accomodating will also be a major factor.
To focus on what is truly important in your post:
You of all people should not be spreading the myth that lemmings jump to their death.
I also think that comparisons to rodents should be avoided; there is too much of that right now.
In summary, I think the comparison is unfair to both sides.
Always interesting to me how people (not saying you, MB, just using this case as useful example) can show signs of intelligence and skepticism and question authority and show awareness of institutional deception when it suits them, but obediently accept "statistics" or equally specious evidence or bow to self-proclaimed experts and resort to name-calling "conspiracy theorists" when it doesn't.
For the precious lemmings, which are small and cute, there are countless debunkers out there quick to tell you that lemming suicide is a myth. Disney faked the video, they tell you. All the other reports for hundreds of years before Disney has been misinterpreted by the experts, they tell you. It hasn't been properly studied, they tell you.
But Covid? Transsexual genes? Anything else? "TRUST THE SCIENCE". We have STATISTICS! We accept the credentialed authorities!
Lemmings, indeed. Lol.
EXCEPT... is HAS been properly studied, and trusting the science is how we know that their mass suicide isn't real. This isn't siding with the debunkers over the scientists, it's siding with the scientists over a commonly accepted myth.
Google Dennis Chitty, just one researcher who put in the time. Or read https://www.nature.com/articles/456043a . written by two others.
I don't have an opinion about it, but what do you know about CYP17 T -34C allele distribution that led you to a conclusion different than most of those who study it for a living?
I didn't understand the question. I wasn't questioning you specifically, MB, just marveling how people can show such different approaches to issues, depending on what their preconceived opinion is. (On the specific question of lemmings, I claim no expertise, but it appears to me more a question of semantics than anything else. Do they consciously commit "suicide"? No. But they do seem to die in large numbers from the same cause, because of what appears to be an instinct that does not allow them to process that obeying that instinct will lead to certain death. Human, all too human - some would say.)
For someone claiming to be rational removing my post with factual evidence about the Charedi life expectancy isn't very reassuring.
This is not rational, it's Rational Judaism just as long as it's against tradition and doesn't acknowledge the existence of G-d.
There's a comment from you earlier in this thread about Charedim and life expectancy. Was there another comment that you believe was illegitimately removed?
Really got the Jeremiah complex, don't you? I've been seeing the same doomsday predictions for at least forty years. At least show some variety, and warn us again about the melting ice caps, the world population exposition, the high Arab birth rate, the coming ice age, and nuclear fallout.
"When a man ceases to believe in God, it isn't the case that ceases to believe in everything - rather, be begins to believe in anything." - Chesterton
You're quoting the virulent anti-semite Chesterton?
Are you insane? Chesterton was a highly respected author, no more an "anti-semite" than you are. Besides, I don't go in for the cancel culture game. If you're reading this blog, you ought to learn the meaning of קבל את האמת ממי שאמרו
Basically the Haredi economy (even in the US) largely runs on arbitrage. I.e. Buying goods and services from one place at one price and selling it for another. That's great when you can be the broker. But when you're a significant part of the population, who creates the actual things?
It's a real problem.
What makes someone charedi?
I think slif is charedi.