106 Comments

If you want a logical earth-bound explanation remember that Iran was in a quandry. It had lost face since a senior general had been assassinated by Israel and to regain it, it had to attack Israel and claim a victory.

However if the attack was massive and did serious damage Israel would massivley retaliate against Iran and take the very tempting opportunity to erradicate Hezbolah too and Hamas which together are an ongoing existential threat to Israel.

A successful attack on Iran could well result in the regime being overthrown given the unrest and dire position of its citizens.

Remember that in the Middle East and many developing countries avoiding losing face is a critical priority in maintaining one's position.

So Iran needs an attack which does not do any damage and which it can proclaim as a victory and Israel wants a situation of a zero damage or near zero damage Iranian attack- the actual result.

This is not to negate the role of the Almighty which created this situation and the result - which probably none of us expected and which we should all be thankful for.

( Unfortunately if Hamas survives then Hamas and Hizbollah can try another October 7 in a few years. which is a possible result of Biden refusing to let Israel complete the Hamas demolition)

Expand full comment

Agree with everything you said except for the sideswipe at the end. Biden is not preventing an op in Rafiah; the US wants to see a plan for how civilians will be protected. It seems like Bibi is either dithering or it’s an empty threat for leverage in the hostage negotiations. But it’s not on Biden.

Expand full comment

We all know what "plan for how civilians will be protected" means, come on.

Expand full comment

I'll be daft and ask what exactly you mean here, thanks

Expand full comment

The world is committed to Israel not having a total victory over Hamas (and Iran) and will use any and all excuses to prevent it. The latest and most popular is "What is your plan for how civilians will be protected?", a question that has been asked of pretty much no other country, ever, including the US.

(Geopolitical genius Kamala Harris: "I have studied the maps! And there a million and a half folks there..." Oh, gag.)

I mean, you do see exactly what happened last night, no? Biden (actually Obama) is terrified that Israel may actually *attack* Iran.

The "international community" has been determined that the Jews not win anything since about 1920. This is part and parcel of that.

Expand full comment

Biden has been extremely supportive of Israel. Israel's existence has always depended on support from foreign actors including the US. When you have allies you have to work with them. What the US is saying is straightforward and obvious: you killed their generals, and they failed in their response due many countries, let by the US, cooperating with Israel in defending against the attack (besides the US funding of the Arrow system). You won; they lost.

Expand full comment

Won? Last I checked the crazies are still running Iran and still threatening us. That isn't a "won."

Expand full comment

"The world is committed to Israel not having a total victory over Hamas (and Iran) and will use any and all excuses to prevent it."

Who's 'the world?' You're not really being clear.

"Biden (actually Obama) is terrified that Israel may actually *attack* Iran."

Not sure why you feel the need to drag Obama into this. For better or for worse, Biden is his own man. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570 (I happen to think he's a lot less hostile than Obama was.)

"The "international community" has been determined that the Jews not win anything since about 1920. This is part and parcel of that."

This sort of vague gesturing isn't useful towards clarifying anything. Lehavdil, reminds me of the anti semites who like to talk about (((the people))) *really* running the government.

In general, Biden has received quite a bit of flak for all the military aid given to Israel. https://theintercept.com/2024/04/01/biden-wisconsin-democrats-gaza-primary/ There was also a federal complaint filed against him for assisting Israel.

https://ccrjustice.org/sites/default/files/attach/2023/11/Complaint_DCI-Pal-v-Biden_ww.pdf

(To be clear: I am NOT claiming he's better for Israel than Trump or any other republican. That's not relevant to anything since there's no political cost to a republican full-throatedly supporting Israel.)

Expand full comment

Biden is likely to lose his re election campaign largely because he supports Israel too strongly. I hope I am wrong on that. Trump is very close to a lot of Jew haters and has a long history of throwing friends under the bus.

Expand full comment

Obviously words mean what they mean. "The World" means the chancelleries of power, which historically have always been a little uncomfortable with Jewish power. Biden has been so uncomfortable since day one.

Expand full comment

Obama has had no role on US policy since 2017. And you know that.

Expand full comment

Well, I guess if you say I know it, it must be true.

Expand full comment

Certainly Iran calibrated it's response, but where is the evidence that they designed the attack to fail? Even Centcom didn't know if the defenses would hold up. Iran would have been very happy blowing up Nevatim.

Expand full comment

I managed to fall asleep by 1am only to have my son wake me up at 1:45 because of the "fireballs in the sky".

I got up and looked right outside my bedroom window and there we saw before us a scene from Star Wars. It looked like a battle going on in space. The video that I recorded from Beit Shemesh was identical to what someone recorded from Har Habayit, Har Hebron, Modiin, etc. We saw the explosions but barely heard the booms if at all.

Our whole neighborhood was awake and watching this astonishing and shocking sight happening right over our heads.

Truly a miracle.

הודו לד׳ כי טוב

Expand full comment

@Ari Bet Shemesh,

Oh please stop with your sycophantic acclamations.

If God wanted to perform a miraculous demonstration he should have … well …. actually done something that was decisively supernatural, like turning those drones around and sent them towards Teheran.

What miracle? It was astonishing military technology that destroyed those drones mid-air. Instead your conviction that it was God’s miracle allows you to fall fall prey to an appeal to your emotions.

Expand full comment

when was the last time a country faced hundreds of missiles (including high tech ballistic missiles) and just knocked them all out of the sky. Nothing close to this has ever happened even in miltary exercises. Natural?

Expand full comment

Many people would consider you a kofer. Shame on you.

Do you not thank G-d for your children?

Do you not recognize the good Hashem has given you?

But I have to recognize that you are probably not a religious observant Jew and therefore aren't aware of a prayer called 'Modim' where we thank G-d for the *miracles* he performs everyday. And lucky for you that you aren't observant because if you were I would seriously do teshuva before Hashem is forced to teach you a hard lesson in gratitude.

Expand full comment

@Ari Bet Shemesh,

Why would you call me a kofer simply because I disagree with you that Iit was a miracle and not

כוחי ועוצם ידי? You think to highly of yourself. You’re a lot less clever than you imagine.

Expand full comment

I'm in the chareidi camp yet I'm here to defend Uriah's Wife.

If you're going to call someone a kofer, please provide a source and explain exactly which of the ikarim is being violated by his statement(s).

Expand full comment

He literally is an actual kofer. Nebach. No need to engage with him unless you understand that prior

Expand full comment

"If God wanted to perform a miraculous demonstration he should have … well …. actually done something that was decisively supernatural, like turning those drones around and sent them towards Teheran."

Thanks for letting us (and Him) know.

Expand full comment

@Shaul,

Well, if you don’t want to give God some well needed advice, I suppose the burden will have to fall on me.

So I’ll try it: Hey God. do something truly miraculous to give the Ayatolahs something to think about. Not something that gives Shaul , Ari et. al. something to beat their brains about, but something thats definitively supernatural… say by transforming the Dead Sea instantaneously into a fresh water lake or raising Rav Menachem Mendel Schneerson from the dead.

Expand full comment

"Well, if you don’t want to give God some well needed advice, I suppose the burden will have to fall on me."

No, that........ doesn't follow.

Expand full comment

Just have to bring this up. Does this miricle mean that hashem really isn't angry at isreal for taking funding away from yeshivos? Because we all know what the chareidim would have said had there been major casulties....

Expand full comment

You can spin it in different ways. If I were so inclined, I could argue that all the money they thought they would save by stopping the yeshiva funding ended up being spent in one night. Those interceptors are not cheap.

Expand full comment

Er, that shows that the money is needed!

Expand full comment

Sort of, that would be one way to slice it.

The other way is that Israel was meant to spend this amount of money regardless. Now that they cut the funding, Hashem orchestrates a new way they have to spend it (and this wouldn't have happened if the funding wasn't cut).

I'm not taking sides here, just pointing out the difficulty of coming away with a compelling argument from something like this.

Expand full comment

This is also similar to the 1991 Iraqi scud missile attacks, baruch Hashem even less casualties.

Expand full comment

and like the thousands of mortal shells fired into the Jewish settlements of gush katif - with no injuries

Expand full comment

Beautiful- and as to the very end- wow!

Expand full comment

It all reminds of the famous quote by David Ben-Gurion, "In Israel, in order to be a realist, you must believe in miracles."

So in Israel, anyone who does not believe in miracles is not a realistic.

Expand full comment

Israel’s response to Teheran should be expediting their invasion of Rafah and the utter decimation of Hamas.

Expand full comment

Who is the quote from?

Expand full comment

I don't remember!

Expand full comment

It is a well known quote that is attributed to him.

Expand full comment

So, in order to justify something, either sancheirev wasn't a miracle, or last night's story was.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Sancheirev was defeated with a miracle, without Chizkiyah lifting a finger to help himself. As the Gemara explains. And Klal Yisroel were suddenly richer from all that Sancheirev's army left behind.

Last night, the State of Israel was attacked, including the Yidden living there. And it cost them upward of a billion dollars to defend themselves. Iran did not win, but Israel also suffered. And no Divine expression of love, through the suspension of some of the laws of nature, took place.

We thank Him for saving us, but pray for more, much much more.

This isn't Sancheirev by any stretch of imagination.

Expand full comment

Actually, I like Slifkin's post today. I think it's quite nice.

Expand full comment

"Including the Yidden living there"? What is *that* supposed to mean? Israel *is* the "Yidden [sic] living there."

Expand full comment

Your point being?

Where were you during the attack, by the way?

Expand full comment

"Your point being?"

That there are other people living in Israel besides Jews.

"Where were you during the attack, by the way?"

Various places.

Expand full comment

Oh, I had no idea there were non-Jews in Israel.

Various places at 2 AM? Impressive.

Expand full comment

"Oh, I had no idea there were non-Jews in Israel."

The bedouins been there since time immemorial...

"Various places at 2 AM? Impressive."

Not sure what you're getting at. I never pretended that I live in Israel. I comment on Israeli politics the same way you comment on American politics and make claims about chancelleries of power and whatnot.

Expand full comment

"Actually, the only real casualty was a Bedouin girl"

About whom no one cares but us.

Expand full comment

Very sad.

Expand full comment

Thank you for your inspiring words.

The words in the הגדה:

והיא שעמדה ... אלא שבכל דור ודור, עומדים עלינו לכלותינו ...

spring to mind.

Expand full comment

Yes, but we still had October 7th, still are missing hostages, etc so let's temper our exuberance a bit.

Expand full comment

The attack in my view was calibrated to not cause too much damage and so annoy Israel. Evidence is that :

- the attack was clearly signpposted in advance. In military terms one does not warn the enemy of your impending attack

- if Iran was serious it could have sent over many more missiles than the 300 it did send over.

I think they expected a lot more damage than the minor damage caused- but for that we have to thank our Guardian.

Expand full comment

I have non religious friends who use the “miracle” or “signs” logic too, in their lives. I always thought it was dumb (and very unJewish.) I have friends who are born again Xtians. They use it too. Reading signs, interpreting and making connections. I know people will ALWAYS do this. I can’t make it stop. I wish it would stop. It will never stop.

Expand full comment

but this is different. this is something really unprecented in history. why doesnt this happen in Ukraine. theoretically US and Nato are supplying Ukraine with the best defense systems.

Expand full comment

The difference is that NATO/EU countries are not going to directly shoot down Russian missiles to avoid starting WWIII. They will do that with Iran. Ukraine is also not getting all the best weapons for that reason although are (or were) getting better weapons as time went on.

Expand full comment

This is a perfect article, from Iran's perspective. Iranian intelligence is reading these articles and report back about the abject fear of Israeli citizens. They didn't want to actually kill anyone - they told everyone what they were about to do and expected Israel and the US to shoot down the missiles. But they wanted Israeli citizens to panic. And they sure did panic.

Iran reads these essays and is ecstatic.

Expand full comment

"they didnt want to hurt anyone" ? but thats not reallistic. they were obviously trying to overwhelm Israel's defense system. 200 missiles all at once ? plus 150 drones. Even if Iron Dome has a success rate of 90% thast means 20-30 missiles would have hit targets

Expand full comment

I'm not getting the vibe of terror that you say you're getting. Definitely not panic.

Expand full comment

Iran is just as interested in murdering Israelis as Hamas is. Don't pretend otherwise.

Expand full comment

"But they wanted Israeli citizens to panic. "

Are sure? Maybe they wanted enough of a light show for domestic consumption.

"And they sure did panic. "

What panic are you referring to? I didn't see any rush to hoard goods at the supermarkets today. Have the incoming tourists cancelled their plans?

Expand full comment

any normal person would be afraid of hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles on the way, waiting to take out army bases, power plants, nuclear plants, etc

Expand full comment

It was a bit surreal.

We read on the news that the drones were launched and were coming our way, and I tell my husband and daughter "I'm going to take a shower... let me know if there's an Azaka (alarm)". Such is life in Israel

Expand full comment

Yes, let's be happy but this was one night. We still have so many problems and devastation.

Expand full comment