137 Comments

The greatest concern, which you did not mention, is that perhaps the temporary pause might turn into a permanent ceasefire, and we will not eradicate Hamas

Expand full comment

This is exactly what is happening. Hamas is playing the government like a fiddle. Every day is something else to buy time. When the 10 days are about to be up Hamas will then propose releasing some men for more time etc. This has turned into a disaster where Hamas is pulling all the strings and holding all the cards.

Expand full comment
Nov 28, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

An even bigger concern is that because of the cease-fire:

1. Hamas will have booby trapped dozens of areas and be in position to kill more soldiers.

2. It will be much harder to finish the job as Hamas is obviously taking advantage of the cease fire to hide better, get more aid that they sorely need enabling them to fight longer. This will only prolong the war significantly and result in more soldier deaths

(The fact that we are even having discussions with Hamas is sickening and empowers them)

and if this does turn into a permanent ceasefire than all the soldiers who lost their lives fighting in Gaza will have died for nothing just as all the soldier who have died since the disengagement decades ago.

Expand full comment

Even if this doesn't turn into a permanent ceasefire, if Hamas regroups and you get back to square one, in a certain sense the soldiers that lost their lives have died for nothing. (Other than freeing hostages). But perhaps it is indeed a soldier's responsibility to give up his life, to save a hostage.

I'm very happy I'm not the one making the decisions.

Expand full comment

Agreed, in the news, the language has evolved from “pause” to “cease fire” to “truce”. That’s what I was afraid of, Israel being accused of breaking a “truce”. Ugh.

Expand full comment

Don't worry, we can trust the geniuses in the government to sort this out. Or so Slifkin tells us.

Expand full comment

Hey, are you related to the Alcohols from Lakewood?

Expand full comment

Cuzzins

Expand full comment

You didn't deal with potential international pressure to extend the pause indefinitely and the difficulty in resuming; the possibility that the exchange rate will gradually get ever more lopsided as they look to extend evermore; and the fact that some of these terrorists are being released into Israel proper if I'm not mistaken . .

Expand full comment

"lopsided"

Indeed. Consider who's left among the terrorist prisoners, and who's left among the hostages.

Expand full comment

well said, as usual. i was concerned about the regrouping and still am, but this article helped the perspective

Expand full comment

It is not often that I get to hit the heart ❤️ button, but today is the day.

Expand full comment

"But the State failed in its responsibility to its civilians, and it must pay a heavy price."

If by "state" you mean "government", then no one is paying any price for the deal. The government spend nearly two decades appeasing Hamas, leaving their citizens vulnerable, while they could have - at any point before October 7th, 2023 - utterly destroyed the threat. They traded their citizen's security for cheap Arab labor to deflate the cost of produce.

In the end, the only ones who suffer are normal Israeli citizens, who remain as hostages, who fear for their lost relatives, who fight a war that cannot be won, and who wait for their brothers, fathers sons, to return home. They're the ones who suffer.

And while normal Israelis suffer, the elected politicians and generals look forward to their cushy retirements in Western countries.

Expand full comment

The exchange rate is directly correlated to the perceived importance/value of each individual hostage.

So, when Hamas has an enormous number of them, they can release some of them without losing too much leverage, and the exchange rate can therefore be low.

But as they will have less and less of them, they'll ask for more to release them, and it's hard to imagine they will eventually get to a point when they have no hostage left up their sleeve. Or, they will ask for them the same absurd deals as for Gilad Shalit.

On the other hand, confidence in the fact Israel will always do anything to get them back is very important for the morale of the soldiers in the IDF.

Expand full comment

I think when we get down to the bottom of the barrel, it's gonna come down to Israel stopping the war and not going after the Hamas leaders in exchange. That's how I see this playing out.

Expand full comment

I don't know whether the hostage deal was the right things to do or not. From a question of future attacks, stopping the war, all the things you mentioned, there are serious questions about the wisdom of this deal. Just making any sort of deal with pure evil is sickening.

You can agree with all of that. But there's another reality as well. Seeing reunited families, see mothers hugging their children, hearing the stories of how hostages were treated, children deeply traumatized, when there was a chance for Israel to get at least some of them back, it was 100% the right thing to do to bring them back. To leave them in the hands of Hamas would have been unthinkable.

Both things are true, despite conflicting with one another.

Expand full comment

Not so, unfortunately. This isnt a מחלקת תנאים where we can wisely intone "eilu v'eilu" and move on. It's a real world question, with a decision to be made. Everyone understands what's on the table (or what was, since its already too late). Before the Oslo and Gush Katif decisions were made, the proponents of those measures also detailed the nightmare scenarios that would ensue if their plans weren't implemented. Unfortunately, it looks like yet another bad decision by an Israeli govt, giving in to pressure.

Expand full comment
Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

אילו ואילו דברי אלוקים חיים והלכה לשחרר

Expand full comment

"From a Torah perspective, it’s important to bear in mind that pidyon shevuyim, redeeming captives, is a tremendously important mitzvah. And this is real pidyon shevuyim of the highest order, not bailing some fraudster out of a US prison. Yes, the Mishnah says that one should not redeem them for “more than their value” as it incentivizes further kidnapping, and Rabbi Meir of Rothenburg famously refused to be redeemed for this reason. But every case of paying ransom, even for no more than “the value” of a person, incentivizes it - and yet the mitzvah still exists! Clearly, facilitating a certain degree of incentive is sometimes outweighed by the need to save people from a horrible fate in the here and now."

Very nice article in general, but please explain what you mean with this analysis.

Obviously, when the Mishnah says not to redeem for more than their value, it was aware that even at value incentives kidnapping. So it was drawing a line. How are you getting around that line?

Expand full comment
Nov 28, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

Yes...you are right. The problem is no problem. A purchase is an incentive by default. The Mishna means we must not OVER incentivize by paying more than their worth.

It's really is straightforward.

Expand full comment

As usual it depends on which rabbis you choose to follow. Rav Ovadiya zt"l as usual is miles ahead of some of the simpletons opining widely today

https://jewishreviewofbooks.com/contemporary-israel/14972/rabbi-ovadia-yosefs-and-the-halakhot-of-hostages-part-i/#

Expand full comment

More respect for Torah sources is in order!

I am making a protest that this article is condescending.

The questions never started...it's all fluff.

Never Again!

Expand full comment
founding

You wrote, "Regading the problem of incentivizing, there’s no such thing as increasing Hamas’ desire to kidnap people any more than it already is. They already received over 1000 terrorists in exchange for Gilad Shalit alone. "

Your logic here on this particular point, I think, is flawed. You can argue that this particular deal does not incentivize them, but the idea certain responses by Israel have no way of incentivizing or de-incentivizing future kidnappings is just no plausible. If they beleive they can bring the country to its knees with kidnappings, then it incentivies them kidnap more people in the future. It's simple human behavior. Again, you can argue that THIS response will not incentivize them, or you can argue that despite the risk of incentivizing them this deal is necessary due to other considerations. But the idea that nothing will alter their behavior makes no no sense.

Expand full comment
Nov 28, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

Executing 10 Hamas prisoners a day until all the histages are freed would surely disincentivize them.

Expand full comment

How clever!! Hamas would never dare execute hostages in return….

Expand full comment

Oh look. Potty-mouth David Ilan shows up. How nice!

Expand full comment

They have done it already.

Expand full comment

Good point Andrew. I was thinking the same. To state that there is no such thing as potentially increasing Hamas desire to kidnap is flat out crazy.

Now he says he wrote the article simply to help people come to terms with the hostage exchange..but is that a valid reason to throw in lunacy arguments?

I think he wrote this to get another article in...after all that is what blogs do...its a hot issue now and will get clicks....but not enough thought was put into it.

It seems like he just wrote it up with whatever thoughts he had without thinking too deeply. That's very wrong. We should be better than that. Natan I think an explanation is in order. Have a great shabbos.

Expand full comment
deletedNov 28, 2023·edited Nov 28, 2023
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

"I expected this blog to weasel charedim in somehow."

From the article

"And this is real pidyon shevuyim of the highest order, not bailing some fraudster out of a US prison."

Don't underestimate the Doctor to throw in some chareidi bashing, no matter the relevance.

Expand full comment

Interesting how it is you who assumes that "a fraudster" in prison in America must be chareidi.

Expand full comment

Rabbi Eliezer Melamed wrote an article opposing the deal.

Expand full comment

Where do I find that article? Can you link?

Expand full comment

In “basheva”

Here is an English translation

https://dusiznies.blogspot.com/2023/11/is-life-of-soldier-worth-less-than.html?m=1

Expand full comment

WADR to R Melamed, he's doing his own analysis of what is excessive ransom and he decides on the one-for-one exchange as the limit based on his own judgment of history. It's not very compelling, IMO. Some of the people who are being released are Arab Israeli women arrested for blog posts. If there is any concern it is not the prisoners, but the pause in hostilities, but it's all a judgment call and he is no more qualified to decide than the people making the decision + they have more info.

Expand full comment

Ahh, so when you become a great posek like Rabbi Melamed we will ask your opinion on halachic matters. Plus his historical reasoning is way more compelling, and we are seeing that he is totally right, and the war has effectively ended, Hamas has not been destroyed, is holding all the cards now, and has attained a great victory.

Expand full comment

We all have our expectations along with R Melamed. We shall see.

Expand full comment

You can also read it at www.israelnationalnews.com/news/380895. Rav Eliezer Melamed is completely against the deal or even pressuring the government:

“Please My Brothers, Do Not Make Things Worse…Those demonstrating… that the government must do “anything” for the captives’ release they strengthen the enemy, and endanger our soldiers at the front”

The article goes into great detail including past heterim by some rabbonim eg Rav Ovadia Yosef to release terrorists concluding:

“Had they foreseen the results of such deals, they would surely have retracted”

Expand full comment

More than anything else, Hamas is playing for time while they lick their wounds. The more time that goes by, the greater the international pressure for a ceasefire builds up and the more difficult for the IDF to resume operations with unavoidable civilian collateral damage.

Expand full comment
Nov 28, 2023·edited Nov 28, 2023

The Mishna says their not bought back for more than their worth to prevent reoccurence.

But wait! Isn't every case of payment an incentive? Great question!

And the answer is...

Drum Roll Please....

Yes there is a mitzvah to buy back....but we must take care to not OVER pay.

Paying MORE than their fair value OVER incentivizes.

Correct that any payment is an incentive - obviously. But we want to LIMIT that incentive.

So, again, we don't OVER incentivize.

(Sorry for sounding condescending, but condescending calls for condescending. Try to comprehend Mishnas before sounding off. Their smarter than us.)

Expand full comment

What is 'over incentivize'? You over incentivize or not. 'Over incentivize' is a meaningless word salad.

Expand full comment

The line was drawn at their value. That is a very sensible line for where over incentivizing starts.

Expand full comment
author

What's the value of a hostage held by Hamas?

Expand full comment

As we learn in cheider - "However much he would be sold as a slave." Whatever that actually means. And it's never made clear how that works for a child.

Expand full comment

Child slaves are also sold - after all, they will eventually grow up.

Expand full comment

You haven't dealt with the point. From a captor's point of view, what is the difference between incentivize and over incentivize?

Expand full comment

The hostage deal was broked by the US and would have been accepted by Ben Gvir if he was the prime minister. Israel is totally dependend on the US and is fortunate to have this level of support. There was no possibility not to accept it.

Expand full comment

This is going to sound bad, I know. If it were any of my children taken hostage, there is NO PRICE TOO HIGH to get them back. That is obvious. But maybe this is what leadership is about. For the government to move forward understanding that we can't lose the war even to get back hostage.

The Shalit deal is the proximate cause of the 10/7 disaster.

Expand full comment

Your own heart would cause you to wish that they do anything to get them back, but your mind would dictate otherwise, there is a bigger picture here unfortunately

Expand full comment

All the arguments on this issue are moot, because when America says jump, Israel asks how high. As the Steipler claimed already years ago “Israel is not considered to be beyad Yisroel because they are beholden to America for everything. This is more true now then ever before. I know this is a bitter pill for all Zionists (are there any left??) but it’s reality. Wake up and realize אין לנו להשען אלא על אבינו שבשמים!

Expand full comment

"Are there any left?"

I take it you dont live in eretz yisrael do you? I also see that not only you dont live in Israel you also live in a cave. In case you havent noticed thousands of zionists returned to Israel just to fight in the IDF.

And zionism isnt going anywhere. A real zionist recognizes that Eretz Yisrael is the place for the Jewish people to be. Those of us who are zoche to live here see the Yad Hashem every day. We see the rebuilding of eretz yisrael, we see the fruits and vegatables growing in overabundance. We see the return of thousands of jews coming back home. This is Zionism. We see the geula happening right in front of us. You should only be zoche that Hashem should open your eyes as well so you too can see the beginning of the geulah happening every day. Maybe one day you will wake up to the emes instead of living in your dark cave of galus.

Expand full comment

So your idea of Geula is a mechalel shabbos prime minister puppet whose strings are being pulled by a cognitively challenged American president. Um No!

Expand full comment

Ari said, " beginning of the geulah", and you counter with "Geula".

Expand full comment

He actually said both. I sense an internal struggle whether he wants to get to the end. He really likes Netanyahu. The real deal comes along with some serious Torah. He might not be ready for that.

Expand full comment

You could see things how you want. I see the land rejuvenating. I see the return of klal yisrael to eretz yisrael. These are clear signs of the beginning of the geula process. You are in denial. That's fine. Stay that way. Its your choice. But your denial of the geula process beginning is no worse than a prime minister who is mechalel shabbat in my opinion. For a frum yid to refuse to acknowledge Hashems involvement in modern day eretz yisrael and refuse to see what is happening as a clear sign of the geula process is worse than a non-frum jew being mechalel shabbos.

Expand full comment

It’s not my fault Ari, I’m a Tinok shenishbah.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Not too worry Getzel, I’m in good company. Chazon Ish, Steipler…..

Expand full comment

You are ridiculous . We went through a Holocaust and this is what you say.!

Expand full comment