The is indeed the correct perspective, and very important:
"Who can say that the State of Israel will never fall?
But actually, I have a separate reason for disliking the phrase reishit tzmichat ge’ulateinu.
Israel isn’t merely the hoped first step of a redemption. It’s a redemption all by itself.
A redemption does not need to be the Final Redemption in order to be a meaningful redemption. We celebrate the redemption from Egypt, even though that wasn’t the final redemption, even though the Jewish People ended up in exile, and even though that entire generation died in the Wilderness. Because it was a meaningful redemptive event, along with a fundamental change in situation for the Bnei Yisrael."
This is a fundamental major general insight: things hold value in the present even if circumstances later shift.
That's the thing that intuitive thinking doesn't get: people intuitively believe (and this is exacerbated by fundamentalist beliefs) that things only have value for some future utopia, and if that utopia doesn't arrive, then it's all for naught
This not the final redemption, this is a redemption.
The Gemorah states in 4 different places , starting with Bruchos “The only difference between the time of Moshiach to before it only 2 things”
1 - The yidden will come back to the land of Israel….TAKE NOTE it does not say ALL the yidden, and it does not say Moshiach will be a frum Yid (maybe it could even be a non Jew). While driven out of their land, the Yidden looking longingly back one more time at the burning city. They could never fathom Jews with long beards would not want to come back, when they will have a chance.. However ,the Gemorah realized not everyone will come back, as we have seen then, over 80% stayed in Babylon That we have frum Jews, today that spit on Israel is just mind boggling.
2 - That the Yidden will live FREE in their land . Most of the time of the second Bais Bamikdosh we were just a vassal state, subordinate to others, paying heavy tribute to them
This is all the Gemorah say is the "time of Moshiach". Later we added there wont be any criminals, no shysters, no child molesters and “kom ba yah” we will all live together in peace etc. etc. etc. Next all the 6 billion people in the world would become our slaves. (thinking about that, we will have several thousand slaves each – NICE) Then at the end….the Bais Hamikdosh will fall down from the sky - well Bais Hamikdoshes don’t usually have a habit of falling from the sky, never happened in Moshe Rabenu's time nor Dovid hamelich's time. You can believe anything you want, and if you take all the saying….you will have a 200 page book of what to believe.
Why don't we just go what the Gomorrah says is Moshiach?
Why do we have to believe every commentary that was added later in our bitter exile?
What is true and what is not??
If we go SIMPLY STRAIGHT with the Gemorah I guess the redemption is here .Yes there can be more, living in peace in our land, building a new Bais Hamikdosh and other things. However keep in mind, thieves, manipulators, scammers will still be there, some without beards and payios and some with them. Do you really think they will change overnight - from the way it is going, even in the Charedi community…..doesn't look very promising.
QUESTION: Why am I a sygatz (or non believer) if I want go with what the Gemorah clearly says in 4 places?? Just asking!
Whether or not the world falls apart all around us or the country implodes due to its own dysfunction are things that we cannot know as we don’t know the future. However, we do now have the benefit of 77 years of hindsight and I would note some things that you did not mention, perhaps you were not aware of. Number one: Prior to 1948,
95%-99% of Jews in the world lived in חו״ל. This percentage has remained static since the destruction of the temple. Even as Jews began to come to Israel in the 1800s and early 1900s, the percentage of Jews living outside the land of Israel remained largely unchanged as 95 to 99% of Jews remained living outside the land. In the past 77years, we have seen the percentages shift to approximately 50% of Jews worldwide living in the land of Israel. This is a phenomenon that has not happened in 2000 years. At what point do we then say that this is the in gathering of the exiles. Does it need to be 55%? 80%? 100%? If we take the dictum of רובו ככולו, then this indeed is the אתחלתא דגאולה. Secondly there is the statement in the Talmud that the clearest sign that the redemption is on the way is that the land of Israel begins to bear fruit. When compared to 77 years ago, there has been an agricultural revolution here that is obvious for everyone see. Israel as a major grain, fruit and vegetable producer/supplier. Such did not exist prior to 1948. And lastly, I would observe that if God wanted to end this entire experiment, He could have allowed nature to take its course and allowed the country to lose one or all of its existential wars. Then it would’ve collapsed and disappeared. Within the face of all these existential wars and internal problems, the country still stands, the percentage of Jews living here continues to grow, and all the while it has become a leading exporter of technological advancement. If at the time one wasn’t sure that 1948 was the beginning of the sprouting of redemption, then taking an objective view of the events of the past 77 years and what could have happened in the negative should be proof enough.
So let's apply your argument to other biblical prophecies and see if we can make that same correlation stick. "You are a nation that dwells alone..." Self fulfilling? Rabbi Sacks notwithstanding, this is totally independent of anything we do. As a matter of fact one could correctly argue that we have tried hard to do the exact opposite. We have always and still do want to be a part of every society we are in and yet they reject us still. Yes, it seems to me by the behavior of our fellow citizens of the world, we are exactly that. A Nation that dwells alone. Pretty accurate prophecy. Self fulfilling?
"And I will bring the land into desolation; and your enemies that dwell in it will be astonished by it...your land will remain desolate and your cities in ruins"
The Ramban in the midst of commenting on the curses upon the jewish people (the curses self fulfilling as well?) says "That which God states here, "So devastated will I leave the land that your enemies..." constitutes a good tiding, proclaiming that during all our exiles, our land will not accept our enemies. This is a great proof and assurance to us, for in the entire inhabited world one cannot find such a good and large land which was always lived in, and yet is as ruined as it is [today]. For since the time that we left it, it has not accepted any nation or people, and they all try to settle it, but to no avail."
Of all the Torah's prophecies this is the most stunning of all. Land does not know who plants on it, who cultivates it, who prunes it...yet we now have 2000 years of evidence which back up the Ramban's assertion. No one was able to settle it as the Jews have...Self fulfilling that land spits out its enemies?
"And you will I scatter among the nations, and I will draw out the sword after you" Also self fulfilling? We willingly traveled to all corners of the earth to make this one come true?
"ye shall be smitten before your enemies; they that hate you shall rule over you; and ye shall flee when none pursueth you." Self fulfilling? We were killed willingly to make this one work?
"Unto the woman He said: 'I will greatly multiply thy pain and thy travail; in pain thou shalt bring forth children;" True to this day. Maybe our women are in pain to make it Self Fulfilling?
"He was despised, and forsaken of men, a man of pains, and acquainted with disease, and as one from whom men hide their face: he was despised, and we esteemed him not." Self fulfilling? We knew Isaiah said this so we worked hard to be hated? just explain for me please...
"The LORD will bring a nation against thee from far, from the end of the earth, as the vulture swoopeth down; a nation whose tongue thou shalt not understand;" How many times has this self fulfilling prophecy come to pass...?
Again, Amos is commenting on the gathering of exiles and fulfilling the promises of Hashem. Whether it is self fulfilling meant nothing to Amos and in fact should mean nothing to us. Is it possible he said this to facilitate our self fulfilling prophecy thereby bringing his words-not written in some Reason magazine article, but the Tanach, to life. He saw the vision and had no clue we went there because the Torah assured us of its fulfillment. One can argue his vision was an after the fact self fulfilling prophecy. You are welcome to tie yourself in knots trying to discount the words of our prophets, but it doesn't change the fact that the words of Amos, whether self fulfilling or not-and I am defiantly saying they are not-have come true. Want to blame radical bible thumpers for it, go ahead. It is independent of his vision and the facts on the ground confirm its truth, Self fulfilling or not. You can be as rational as you want but you cannot argue his vision is being played out in front of us. Tying it back full circle, when one looks at the totality of the jewish experience and calculates the odds, we are a mathematical impossibility. You can call that self fulfilling too but the one thing you cannot deny is "In each and every generation they rise up against us to destroy us. And the Holy One, blessed be He, rescues us from their hands."
Call it whatever you want if it makes you feel better, but the question remains how are we even here? We should have long since been wiped off the planet and yet here we are, debating if the words of the Tanach are valid. I dont have the sort of standing in Heaven to argue they are not.
Just to give you an alternative approach to the books of prophecy that you might try out, when you are reading these works, take very careful consideration of when the work was composed and in what political and social context. Is the prophet describing the future, or providing theological justification for the present.
I think there is seldom any good reason to imagine the prophets are speaking of events 100 generations in the future. When you read the prophecies this way, you end up making the same kinds of errors that Christians do when interpreting Old Testament passages as references to Jesus. My 2 cents.
Yeah, like some of the other folks commenting above, my issue is with the notion of metaphysical "redemption" and what exactly we imagine that entailing. If the idea is an actual messiah figure, some kind of charismatic politician, and a return to Biblical practices -- Temple sacrifices, monarchy, executing non-believers, cities of refuge, slavery, and all that great stuff, I'd have to say "No, thank you." That does not seem attractive in the least. Something less Biblical, such as government by a rabbinical class enforcing their understanding of Halacha seems even more dystopic to me, if possible. So I don't really know what vision people are trying to express when they refer to the upcoming redemption.
I think the whole idea of redemption comes out of a time and place before science and progress and the concept that humans can improve their own condition. At the time it was either "abject hopelessness" or "hope for redemption by miraculous means". It's not a useful concept today, diverts attention from trying to improve the world we actually live in, and in many cases actually *subverts* the effort to improve the world we live in, as we see with American evangelicals' eagerness to hasten the end-times.
Redemption is a state of mind that must be put into Action. The modern State is our human attempt to realize Hashem's presence in the world through constant sacrifice, hard work, and spiritual connections.
It certainly is the beginning of a process whatever yoou wish to call it. Perhaps the secularists started the process because the Orthodox were not Zoche to do so. They were blind to events unfolding before their eyes.
Do intelligent people really, genuinely, deep-down believe in the coming of a messiah? After all, what it they say about doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome?
Surely it is time to accept messianic redemption for being merely a comforting myth that has been bent completely out of shape to support rabbinic authority - another concept with little basis in original Israelite religion?
Well, according to Maimonides the Messianic Era does not involve any supernatural changes to the world, just World Peace. Although to be honest, some might understandably find that even harder to believe in!
Noted. Even then, Rambam is writing over a millenium after Judaism is reformulated at Yavne and more that 600 years after the redaction of the Talmud. Where is the real basis for messianic redemption in Tanach? Surely something as fundamental as messianic redemption would be in Chumash? Is it not something that first gained a little traction after the thr loss of the northern Kingdom and then the Babylonian exile but took off when the Greek concept of separation of body and soul was incorporated (no pun intended) and then became fundamental only when the Prushim gained ascendancy (noting the irony of the Prushim effectively championing a Hellenistic concept)?
I think his ikkarim generally do not sit very comfortably with his philosophy as expressed in The Guide. This is why we've had 1000 years of playing "Will the real Rambam please stand up."
You are indeed remarkable. It’s happening all around you and yet you say it’s a myth. We all may not live to see it come to its ultimate fruition, but what has happened over the past 80 years was all foretold in the writings of the prophets. You just don’t know.
Do intelligent people, genuinely, deep-down NOT believe in the coming of the Messiah? After all, what is it they say about doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome? They keep trying to destroy us and yet, time after time, this small people of 15 million continue to overcome odds that are incalculable. The State of Israel is a miracle of prophetic proportions. We can say whatever we want about our ingenuity and our bravery-all of which are correct-but when even our brightest defense minds say stopping 99% of rockets from Iran was beyond their wildest dreams and beyond explaination, intelligent people needs to pause and wonder how this is even possible. A friend of mine called me the day after the second Iranian attack and asked-how do you like our Israeli defense system? I responded I love our Israeli defense system, I pray to Him every day.
The prophet Amos, Rabbi Slifkin, offered his response to your question and concerns. I believe he was talking about our generation 2700 years ago. Unlike the time of Ezra, Hashem has brought back His people from all four corners of the earth, not just neighboring countries and more than that, not under foreign rule. “And I will turn the captivity of My people Israel, and they shall build the waste cities, and inhabit them; and they shall plant vineyards, and drink the wine thereof; they shall also make gardens, and eat the fruit of them. I will plant them upon their land, and they shall no more be plucked up out of their land which I have given them, saith the LORD thy God.”
Just as the words of our expulsion and destruction came true from our prophets mouth, so too this intelligent person believes with his whole heart that indeed I am living proof the words of our prophet Amos is unfolding before our eyes. And without question, when our behavior warrants his appearance, the Annointed one our prophets spoke about will also come may he come speedily in our days.
Yes we are living through our redemption. Whether that takes seconds or centuries, (cy) there is no doubt Amos’ words are the harbinger for that momentous event and history continues to unfold.
And lastly, Should my belief in Torah, our prophets and our redemption make me unintelligent, I will happily and proudly wear that crown. To end I will quote the ultimate Rabbinical rationalist
“And I will make thee a small nation and no one will reckon thee” when you consider those who attempted to destroy us vs our numbers, as an example 1 billion Muslims and before you say not all billion, let’s just take 5% of them which is generous-that’s 50 million people sworn to our annihilation, 15 is not much. However I have no clue what point you are making here “ it's literally a "self-fulfilling prophecy ", in that it only happened because people were inspired by the biblical prophecies”
Is your argument that Theodore Hertzel and the socialists were inspired by biblical prophecy? Okay, interesting claim…novel idea…
It is hardly a self fulfilling prophecy when you consider the Zionist movement and their original intent and efforts on the new Jew. It’s actually the opposite. The prophecy is unfolding before us despite or even due to the vehicles which Hashem works through. And that is the point. I did not make Aliyah because of Amos, I made Aliyah for various reasons not the least of which is Hashem is very clear where we belong. Second, the prophecy being self fulfilling is irrelevant. The facts on the ground are. And in that case, the words of the prophet are nevertheless still true. It’s actually like arguing that the only reason Abraham came to Israel is because Hashem told him to. Well, yeah. I’d actually argue most people who have moved here or even those who live here have no idea about Amos’s words. And even taking your words as they seem to be intended, Why is it you believe prophecies are somehow invalid because they are self fulfilling? That is exactly the point when Tanach says לא בחפזון. Redemption is going to be a slow process. You will return to your land…either way, the works of G-d are happening in front of you. It’s quite pompous to claim they somehow mean less because one is versed and possibly motivated by Tanach. Surely Amos knew something about it regardless.
"Is your argument that Theodore Hertzel and the socialists were inspired by biblical prophecy? Okay, interesting claim…novel idea…"
Of course they were inspired by that, indirectly. Not novel at all, pretty obvious.
"I’d actually argue most people who have moved here or even those who live here have no idea about Amos’s words".
Maybe not the exact words , but I'd be surprised if most people moving to Israel didn't know about the general biblical prophecies about the Return.
"And even taking your words as they seem to be intended, Why is it you believe prophecies are somehow invalid because they are self fulfilling?"
Self-fulfilling prophecies don’t invalidate a prophecy per se, but they do complicate how we interpret their fulfillment. If people act in a certain way because they believe a prophecy will come true, then the fulfillment may say more about human behavior than divine prediction.
I.e. when expectations influence actions that cause the expected outcome, the result doesn't confirm the truth of the original belief, only its impact. Applied to biblical prophecy, if people move to Israel or rebuild the land due (directly or indirectly) to biblical prophecies, that’s an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It may be meaningful religiously or culturally, but it's not strong evidence that the prophecy was externally validated or supernaturally foreseen
So let's apply your argument to other biblical prophecies and see if we can make that same correlation stick. "You are a nation that dwells alone..." Self fulfilling? Rabbi Sacks notwithstanding, this is totally independent of anything we do. As a matter of fact one could correctly argue that we have tried hard to do the exact opposite. We have always and still do want to be a part of every society we are in and yet they reject us still. Yes, it seems to me by the behavior of our fellow citizens of the world, we are exactly that. A Nation that dwells alone. Pretty accurate prophecy. Self fulfilling?
"And I will bring the land into desolation; and your enemies that dwell in it will be astonished by it...your land will remain desolate and your cities in ruins"
The Ramban in the midst of commenting on the curses upon the jewish people (the curses self fulfilling as well?) says "That which God states here, "So devastated will I leave the land that your enemies..." constitutes a good tiding, proclaiming that during all our exiles, our land will not accept our enemies. This is a great proof and assurance to us, for in the entire inhabited world one cannot find such a good and large land which was always lived in, and yet is as ruined as it is [today]. For since the time that we left it, it has not accepted any nation or people, and they all try to settle it, but to no avail."
Of all the Torah's prophecies this is the most stunning of all. Land does not know who plants on it, who cultivates it, who prunes it...yet we now have 2000 years of evidence which back up the Ramban's assertion. No one was able to settle it as the Jews have...Self fulfilling that land spits out its enemies?
"And you will I scatter among the nations, and I will draw out the sword after you" Also self fulfilling? We willingly traveled to all corners of the earth to make this one come true?
"ye shall be smitten before your enemies; they that hate you shall rule over you; and ye shall flee when none pursueth you." Self fulfilling? We were killed willingly to make this one work?
"Unto the woman He said: 'I will greatly multiply thy pain and thy travail; in pain thou shalt bring forth children;" True to this day. Maybe our women are in pain to make it Self Fulfilling?
"He was despised, and forsaken of men, a man of pains, and acquainted with disease, and as one from whom men hide their face: he was despised, and we esteemed him not." Self fulfilling? We knew Isaiah said this so we worked hard to be hated? just explain for me please...
"The LORD will bring a nation against thee from far, from the end of the earth, as the vulture swoopeth down; a nation whose tongue thou shalt not understand;" How many times has this self fulfilling prophecy come to pass...?
Again, Amos is commenting on the gathering of exiles and fulfilling the promises of Hashem. Whether it is self fulfilling meant nothing to Amos and in fact should mean nothing to us. Is it possible he said this to facilitate our self fulfilling prophecy thereby bringing his words-not written in some Reason magazine article, but the Tanach, to life. He saw the vision and had no clue we went there because the Torah assured us of its fulfillment. One can argue his vision was an after the fact self fulfilling prophecy. You are welcome to tie yourself in knots trying to discount the words of our prophets, but it doesn't change the fact that the words of Amos, whether self fulfilling or not-and I am defiantly saying they are not-have come true. Want to blame radical bible thumpers for it, go ahead. It is independent of his vision and the facts on the ground confirm its truth, Self fulfilling or not. You can be as rational as you want but you cannot argue his vision is being played out in front of us. Tying it back full circle, when one looks at the totality of the jewish experience and calculates the odds, we are a mathematical impossibility. You can call that self fulfilling too but the one thing you cannot deny is "In each and every generation they rise up against us to destroy us. And the Holy One, blessed be He, rescues us from their hands."
Call it whatever you want if it makes you feel better, but the question remains how are we even here? We should have long since been wiped off the planet and yet here we are, debating if the words of the Tanach are valid. I dont have the sort of standing in Heaven to argue they are not.
You say "You are a nation that dwells alone" cannot be self-fulfilling, but this is clearly self-fulfilling.
In the US, Jews are currently highly assimilated with intermarriage rates above 50% and declining religious observance across generations.
2)
Your claim about land desolation ignores substantial archaeological and historical evidence showing agricultural productivity under Romans, Byzantines, and later Ottoman periods.
The narrative of complete desolation primarily emerges from selective 19th century European travel accounts rather than comprehensive historical records.
3)
You attribute the scattering "among nations" to supernatural causes while ignoring that Jewish communities deliberately maintained diaspora networks for commercial and cultural advantages.
Many diaspora communities actively resisted opportunities for territorial consolidation, finding economic and cultural benefits in transnational networks.
4)
The suffering described as being "smitten before enemies" reflects typical historical power dynamics, not unique prophecy.
Jewish communities experienced both persecution and protection depending on their usefulness to various regimes, much like other minority merchant and administrative classes (especially monothestic ones, such as minority Christian, Muslim, etc).
5)
You cite Isaiah's 'man of pains' as fulfilled prophecy.
But the vagueness of the passage allows retroactive interpretation to fit nearly anything.
Referencing pain in childbirth as prophetic evidence demonstrates the weakness of your argument since this represents biology, not foreknowledge.
This common knowledge appears in virtually every ancient cultural tradition, making it meaningless as evidence for supernatural prediction.
Pain in childbirth is a basic biological fact shared by all mammals - nothing impressive or predictive.
6)
Your citation of being "despised" reflects historical patterns of economic competition and religious difference, not supernatural insight.
Similar patterns of discrimination affected numerous minority groups with specialized economic niches throughout history.
7)
Predictions about conquests from "the end of the earth" describe the normal geopolitical reality of the Levant, a natural invasion corridor.
Every society in this region experienced similar conquest patterns due to geography, not divine arrangement.
Generic military threats happen to every nation, this doesn’t distinguish the prophecy as unique or meaningful.
8)
You claim Amos's prophecy about land restoration proves supernatural foreknowledge while ignoring the active political movement that implemented it.
This circular reasoning celebrates the fulfillment while overlooking the human agents who deliberately enacted it.
As I mentioned, if people acted on his words, fulfillment says more about human belief than divine foresight.
9)
Your argument confuses correlation with causation, attributing ordinary historical patterns to supernatural causes.
Survival through persecution is a pattern shared by numerous monotheistic minority groups with strong internal governance and flexible adaptation strategies.
10)
You rely on emotional appeals about "mathematical impossibility" rather than engaging with well-documented historical processes.
Cultural persistence of monotheistic groups through adversity follows identifiable sociological patterns that can be observed across multiple enduring minority traditions (especially monotheistic ones, such as minority Christian groups, Muslim groups, as well as Roma/ gypsies, etc), not just Jewish ones.
Bottom line, you do the classic thing of cherry picking current events that fulfill prophecy while explaining away unfulfilled elements as coming in a future phase. This creates a convenient moving target that can never be actually evaluated
Re: David Ilan’s comment. You couldn’t be more wrong. It’s a process. I said in my post “approximately 50%”. And then I made the leap to say רובו ככלו , that almost 50% is רוב. That doesn’t make my premise incorrect. The point of my premise is that the significant % increase has only increased in such a fashion since 1948. Whether the technical minutiae of the % is 48% this year or 50% next year or 52% in three years is irrelevant and missing the forest for the trees.
Great piece, beautifully stated.
The is indeed the correct perspective, and very important:
"Who can say that the State of Israel will never fall?
But actually, I have a separate reason for disliking the phrase reishit tzmichat ge’ulateinu.
Israel isn’t merely the hoped first step of a redemption. It’s a redemption all by itself.
A redemption does not need to be the Final Redemption in order to be a meaningful redemption. We celebrate the redemption from Egypt, even though that wasn’t the final redemption, even though the Jewish People ended up in exile, and even though that entire generation died in the Wilderness. Because it was a meaningful redemptive event, along with a fundamental change in situation for the Bnei Yisrael."
This is a fundamental major general insight: things hold value in the present even if circumstances later shift.
That's the thing that intuitive thinking doesn't get: people intuitively believe (and this is exacerbated by fundamentalist beliefs) that things only have value for some future utopia, and if that utopia doesn't arrive, then it's all for naught
Ezra - great comment!!
This not the final redemption, this is a redemption.
The Gemorah states in 4 different places , starting with Bruchos “The only difference between the time of Moshiach to before it only 2 things”
1 - The yidden will come back to the land of Israel….TAKE NOTE it does not say ALL the yidden, and it does not say Moshiach will be a frum Yid (maybe it could even be a non Jew). While driven out of their land, the Yidden looking longingly back one more time at the burning city. They could never fathom Jews with long beards would not want to come back, when they will have a chance.. However ,the Gemorah realized not everyone will come back, as we have seen then, over 80% stayed in Babylon That we have frum Jews, today that spit on Israel is just mind boggling.
2 - That the Yidden will live FREE in their land . Most of the time of the second Bais Bamikdosh we were just a vassal state, subordinate to others, paying heavy tribute to them
This is all the Gemorah say is the "time of Moshiach". Later we added there wont be any criminals, no shysters, no child molesters and “kom ba yah” we will all live together in peace etc. etc. etc. Next all the 6 billion people in the world would become our slaves. (thinking about that, we will have several thousand slaves each – NICE) Then at the end….the Bais Hamikdosh will fall down from the sky - well Bais Hamikdoshes don’t usually have a habit of falling from the sky, never happened in Moshe Rabenu's time nor Dovid hamelich's time. You can believe anything you want, and if you take all the saying….you will have a 200 page book of what to believe.
Why don't we just go what the Gomorrah says is Moshiach?
Why do we have to believe every commentary that was added later in our bitter exile?
What is true and what is not??
If we go SIMPLY STRAIGHT with the Gemorah I guess the redemption is here .Yes there can be more, living in peace in our land, building a new Bais Hamikdosh and other things. However keep in mind, thieves, manipulators, scammers will still be there, some without beards and payios and some with them. Do you really think they will change overnight - from the way it is going, even in the Charedi community…..doesn't look very promising.
QUESTION: Why am I a sygatz (or non believer) if I want go with what the Gemorah clearly says in 4 places?? Just asking!
Whether or not the world falls apart all around us or the country implodes due to its own dysfunction are things that we cannot know as we don’t know the future. However, we do now have the benefit of 77 years of hindsight and I would note some things that you did not mention, perhaps you were not aware of. Number one: Prior to 1948,
95%-99% of Jews in the world lived in חו״ל. This percentage has remained static since the destruction of the temple. Even as Jews began to come to Israel in the 1800s and early 1900s, the percentage of Jews living outside the land of Israel remained largely unchanged as 95 to 99% of Jews remained living outside the land. In the past 77years, we have seen the percentages shift to approximately 50% of Jews worldwide living in the land of Israel. This is a phenomenon that has not happened in 2000 years. At what point do we then say that this is the in gathering of the exiles. Does it need to be 55%? 80%? 100%? If we take the dictum of רובו ככולו, then this indeed is the אתחלתא דגאולה. Secondly there is the statement in the Talmud that the clearest sign that the redemption is on the way is that the land of Israel begins to bear fruit. When compared to 77 years ago, there has been an agricultural revolution here that is obvious for everyone see. Israel as a major grain, fruit and vegetable producer/supplier. Such did not exist prior to 1948. And lastly, I would observe that if God wanted to end this entire experiment, He could have allowed nature to take its course and allowed the country to lose one or all of its existential wars. Then it would’ve collapsed and disappeared. Within the face of all these existential wars and internal problems, the country still stands, the percentage of Jews living here continues to grow, and all the while it has become a leading exporter of technological advancement. If at the time one wasn’t sure that 1948 was the beginning of the sprouting of redemption, then taking an objective view of the events of the past 77 years and what could have happened in the negative should be proof enough.
So let's apply your argument to other biblical prophecies and see if we can make that same correlation stick. "You are a nation that dwells alone..." Self fulfilling? Rabbi Sacks notwithstanding, this is totally independent of anything we do. As a matter of fact one could correctly argue that we have tried hard to do the exact opposite. We have always and still do want to be a part of every society we are in and yet they reject us still. Yes, it seems to me by the behavior of our fellow citizens of the world, we are exactly that. A Nation that dwells alone. Pretty accurate prophecy. Self fulfilling?
"And I will bring the land into desolation; and your enemies that dwell in it will be astonished by it...your land will remain desolate and your cities in ruins"
The Ramban in the midst of commenting on the curses upon the jewish people (the curses self fulfilling as well?) says "That which God states here, "So devastated will I leave the land that your enemies..." constitutes a good tiding, proclaiming that during all our exiles, our land will not accept our enemies. This is a great proof and assurance to us, for in the entire inhabited world one cannot find such a good and large land which was always lived in, and yet is as ruined as it is [today]. For since the time that we left it, it has not accepted any nation or people, and they all try to settle it, but to no avail."
Of all the Torah's prophecies this is the most stunning of all. Land does not know who plants on it, who cultivates it, who prunes it...yet we now have 2000 years of evidence which back up the Ramban's assertion. No one was able to settle it as the Jews have...Self fulfilling that land spits out its enemies?
"And you will I scatter among the nations, and I will draw out the sword after you" Also self fulfilling? We willingly traveled to all corners of the earth to make this one come true?
"ye shall be smitten before your enemies; they that hate you shall rule over you; and ye shall flee when none pursueth you." Self fulfilling? We were killed willingly to make this one work?
"Unto the woman He said: 'I will greatly multiply thy pain and thy travail; in pain thou shalt bring forth children;" True to this day. Maybe our women are in pain to make it Self Fulfilling?
"He was despised, and forsaken of men, a man of pains, and acquainted with disease, and as one from whom men hide their face: he was despised, and we esteemed him not." Self fulfilling? We knew Isaiah said this so we worked hard to be hated? just explain for me please...
"The LORD will bring a nation against thee from far, from the end of the earth, as the vulture swoopeth down; a nation whose tongue thou shalt not understand;" How many times has this self fulfilling prophecy come to pass...?
Again, Amos is commenting on the gathering of exiles and fulfilling the promises of Hashem. Whether it is self fulfilling meant nothing to Amos and in fact should mean nothing to us. Is it possible he said this to facilitate our self fulfilling prophecy thereby bringing his words-not written in some Reason magazine article, but the Tanach, to life. He saw the vision and had no clue we went there because the Torah assured us of its fulfillment. One can argue his vision was an after the fact self fulfilling prophecy. You are welcome to tie yourself in knots trying to discount the words of our prophets, but it doesn't change the fact that the words of Amos, whether self fulfilling or not-and I am defiantly saying they are not-have come true. Want to blame radical bible thumpers for it, go ahead. It is independent of his vision and the facts on the ground confirm its truth, Self fulfilling or not. You can be as rational as you want but you cannot argue his vision is being played out in front of us. Tying it back full circle, when one looks at the totality of the jewish experience and calculates the odds, we are a mathematical impossibility. You can call that self fulfilling too but the one thing you cannot deny is "In each and every generation they rise up against us to destroy us. And the Holy One, blessed be He, rescues us from their hands."
Call it whatever you want if it makes you feel better, but the question remains how are we even here? We should have long since been wiped off the planet and yet here we are, debating if the words of the Tanach are valid. I dont have the sort of standing in Heaven to argue they are not.
I envy you.
Just to give you an alternative approach to the books of prophecy that you might try out, when you are reading these works, take very careful consideration of when the work was composed and in what political and social context. Is the prophet describing the future, or providing theological justification for the present.
I think there is seldom any good reason to imagine the prophets are speaking of events 100 generations in the future. When you read the prophecies this way, you end up making the same kinds of errors that Christians do when interpreting Old Testament passages as references to Jesus. My 2 cents.
Yeah, like some of the other folks commenting above, my issue is with the notion of metaphysical "redemption" and what exactly we imagine that entailing. If the idea is an actual messiah figure, some kind of charismatic politician, and a return to Biblical practices -- Temple sacrifices, monarchy, executing non-believers, cities of refuge, slavery, and all that great stuff, I'd have to say "No, thank you." That does not seem attractive in the least. Something less Biblical, such as government by a rabbinical class enforcing their understanding of Halacha seems even more dystopic to me, if possible. So I don't really know what vision people are trying to express when they refer to the upcoming redemption.
I think the whole idea of redemption comes out of a time and place before science and progress and the concept that humans can improve their own condition. At the time it was either "abject hopelessness" or "hope for redemption by miraculous means". It's not a useful concept today, diverts attention from trying to improve the world we actually live in, and in many cases actually *subverts* the effort to improve the world we live in, as we see with American evangelicals' eagerness to hasten the end-times.
Redemption is a state of mind that must be put into Action. The modern State is our human attempt to realize Hashem's presence in the world through constant sacrifice, hard work, and spiritual connections.
לראות את הטוב!
Thank you, Rav Natan.
It certainly is the beginning of a process whatever yoou wish to call it. Perhaps the secularists started the process because the Orthodox were not Zoche to do so. They were blind to events unfolding before their eyes.
Thank you so much for your thoughtful words and for your "rationality" in a world that seems to be ruled by the irrational on so many fronts.
Do intelligent people really, genuinely, deep-down believe in the coming of a messiah? After all, what it they say about doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome?
Surely it is time to accept messianic redemption for being merely a comforting myth that has been bent completely out of shape to support rabbinic authority - another concept with little basis in original Israelite religion?
Well, according to Maimonides the Messianic Era does not involve any supernatural changes to the world, just World Peace. Although to be honest, some might understandably find that even harder to believe in!
Noted. Even then, Rambam is writing over a millenium after Judaism is reformulated at Yavne and more that 600 years after the redaction of the Talmud. Where is the real basis for messianic redemption in Tanach? Surely something as fundamental as messianic redemption would be in Chumash? Is it not something that first gained a little traction after the thr loss of the northern Kingdom and then the Babylonian exile but took off when the Greek concept of separation of body and soul was incorporated (no pun intended) and then became fundamental only when the Prushim gained ascendancy (noting the irony of the Prushim effectively championing a Hellenistic concept)?
Where do you want the source from? You mention many different sources, make up your mind :) :
Chumash = Pentateuch
Tanakh = Bible/ Babylonian exile
Yavne = Mishnah / Prushim
Talmud = Gemara
Anyway, see Wikipedia for an overview:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah_in_Judaism
But doesn’t he include t’chiyat hametim in his ikarim?
I think his ikkarim generally do not sit very comfortably with his philosophy as expressed in The Guide. This is why we've had 1000 years of playing "Will the real Rambam please stand up."
ותחזנה עינינו בשובך לציון
You are indeed remarkable. It’s happening all around you and yet you say it’s a myth. We all may not live to see it come to its ultimate fruition, but what has happened over the past 80 years was all foretold in the writings of the prophets. You just don’t know.
And if this wasn't what they foretold, then the next time will be. For sure. Or definitely the time after that.
You’re a bit incoherent
Been called worse things.
Not trying to insult you, just don’t understand your post
The post /comment is quite transparent. Hint: it's sarcastic/ tongue in cheek
Lol
Do intelligent people, genuinely, deep-down NOT believe in the coming of the Messiah? After all, what is it they say about doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome? They keep trying to destroy us and yet, time after time, this small people of 15 million continue to overcome odds that are incalculable. The State of Israel is a miracle of prophetic proportions. We can say whatever we want about our ingenuity and our bravery-all of which are correct-but when even our brightest defense minds say stopping 99% of rockets from Iran was beyond their wildest dreams and beyond explaination, intelligent people needs to pause and wonder how this is even possible. A friend of mine called me the day after the second Iranian attack and asked-how do you like our Israeli defense system? I responded I love our Israeli defense system, I pray to Him every day.
The prophet Amos, Rabbi Slifkin, offered his response to your question and concerns. I believe he was talking about our generation 2700 years ago. Unlike the time of Ezra, Hashem has brought back His people from all four corners of the earth, not just neighboring countries and more than that, not under foreign rule. “And I will turn the captivity of My people Israel, and they shall build the waste cities, and inhabit them; and they shall plant vineyards, and drink the wine thereof; they shall also make gardens, and eat the fruit of them. I will plant them upon their land, and they shall no more be plucked up out of their land which I have given them, saith the LORD thy God.”
Just as the words of our expulsion and destruction came true from our prophets mouth, so too this intelligent person believes with his whole heart that indeed I am living proof the words of our prophet Amos is unfolding before our eyes. And without question, when our behavior warrants his appearance, the Annointed one our prophets spoke about will also come may he come speedily in our days.
Yes we are living through our redemption. Whether that takes seconds or centuries, (cy) there is no doubt Amos’ words are the harbinger for that momentous event and history continues to unfold.
And lastly, Should my belief in Torah, our prophets and our redemption make me unintelligent, I will happily and proudly wear that crown. To end I will quote the ultimate Rabbinical rationalist
אני מאמין
באמונה שלמה
בביאת המשיח.
ואף על פי שיתמהמה,
עם כל זה אחכה לו
אחכה לו בכל יום
שיבוא
If I am naive I can live with that
"small people of 15 million".
That number isn't small, it's actually relatively large, compared to the avg country population.
"State of Israel is a miracle of prophetic proportions".
Maybe so, but it's literally a "self-fulfilling prophecy ", in that it only happened because people were inspired by the biblical prophecies
As are all good prophecies.
“And I will make thee a small nation and no one will reckon thee” when you consider those who attempted to destroy us vs our numbers, as an example 1 billion Muslims and before you say not all billion, let’s just take 5% of them which is generous-that’s 50 million people sworn to our annihilation, 15 is not much. However I have no clue what point you are making here “ it's literally a "self-fulfilling prophecy ", in that it only happened because people were inspired by the biblical prophecies”
Is your argument that Theodore Hertzel and the socialists were inspired by biblical prophecy? Okay, interesting claim…novel idea…
It is hardly a self fulfilling prophecy when you consider the Zionist movement and their original intent and efforts on the new Jew. It’s actually the opposite. The prophecy is unfolding before us despite or even due to the vehicles which Hashem works through. And that is the point. I did not make Aliyah because of Amos, I made Aliyah for various reasons not the least of which is Hashem is very clear where we belong. Second, the prophecy being self fulfilling is irrelevant. The facts on the ground are. And in that case, the words of the prophet are nevertheless still true. It’s actually like arguing that the only reason Abraham came to Israel is because Hashem told him to. Well, yeah. I’d actually argue most people who have moved here or even those who live here have no idea about Amos’s words. And even taking your words as they seem to be intended, Why is it you believe prophecies are somehow invalid because they are self fulfilling? That is exactly the point when Tanach says לא בחפזון. Redemption is going to be a slow process. You will return to your land…either way, the works of G-d are happening in front of you. It’s quite pompous to claim they somehow mean less because one is versed and possibly motivated by Tanach. Surely Amos knew something about it regardless.
Crazy how that happens huh?
"Is your argument that Theodore Hertzel and the socialists were inspired by biblical prophecy? Okay, interesting claim…novel idea…"
Of course they were inspired by that, indirectly. Not novel at all, pretty obvious.
"I’d actually argue most people who have moved here or even those who live here have no idea about Amos’s words".
Maybe not the exact words , but I'd be surprised if most people moving to Israel didn't know about the general biblical prophecies about the Return.
"And even taking your words as they seem to be intended, Why is it you believe prophecies are somehow invalid because they are self fulfilling?"
Self-fulfilling prophecies don’t invalidate a prophecy per se, but they do complicate how we interpret their fulfillment. If people act in a certain way because they believe a prophecy will come true, then the fulfillment may say more about human behavior than divine prediction.
I.e. when expectations influence actions that cause the expected outcome, the result doesn't confirm the truth of the original belief, only its impact. Applied to biblical prophecy, if people move to Israel or rebuild the land due (directly or indirectly) to biblical prophecies, that’s an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It may be meaningful religiously or culturally, but it's not strong evidence that the prophecy was externally validated or supernaturally foreseen
So let's apply your argument to other biblical prophecies and see if we can make that same correlation stick. "You are a nation that dwells alone..." Self fulfilling? Rabbi Sacks notwithstanding, this is totally independent of anything we do. As a matter of fact one could correctly argue that we have tried hard to do the exact opposite. We have always and still do want to be a part of every society we are in and yet they reject us still. Yes, it seems to me by the behavior of our fellow citizens of the world, we are exactly that. A Nation that dwells alone. Pretty accurate prophecy. Self fulfilling?
"And I will bring the land into desolation; and your enemies that dwell in it will be astonished by it...your land will remain desolate and your cities in ruins"
The Ramban in the midst of commenting on the curses upon the jewish people (the curses self fulfilling as well?) says "That which God states here, "So devastated will I leave the land that your enemies..." constitutes a good tiding, proclaiming that during all our exiles, our land will not accept our enemies. This is a great proof and assurance to us, for in the entire inhabited world one cannot find such a good and large land which was always lived in, and yet is as ruined as it is [today]. For since the time that we left it, it has not accepted any nation or people, and they all try to settle it, but to no avail."
Of all the Torah's prophecies this is the most stunning of all. Land does not know who plants on it, who cultivates it, who prunes it...yet we now have 2000 years of evidence which back up the Ramban's assertion. No one was able to settle it as the Jews have...Self fulfilling that land spits out its enemies?
"And you will I scatter among the nations, and I will draw out the sword after you" Also self fulfilling? We willingly traveled to all corners of the earth to make this one come true?
"ye shall be smitten before your enemies; they that hate you shall rule over you; and ye shall flee when none pursueth you." Self fulfilling? We were killed willingly to make this one work?
"Unto the woman He said: 'I will greatly multiply thy pain and thy travail; in pain thou shalt bring forth children;" True to this day. Maybe our women are in pain to make it Self Fulfilling?
"He was despised, and forsaken of men, a man of pains, and acquainted with disease, and as one from whom men hide their face: he was despised, and we esteemed him not." Self fulfilling? We knew Isaiah said this so we worked hard to be hated? just explain for me please...
"The LORD will bring a nation against thee from far, from the end of the earth, as the vulture swoopeth down; a nation whose tongue thou shalt not understand;" How many times has this self fulfilling prophecy come to pass...?
Again, Amos is commenting on the gathering of exiles and fulfilling the promises of Hashem. Whether it is self fulfilling meant nothing to Amos and in fact should mean nothing to us. Is it possible he said this to facilitate our self fulfilling prophecy thereby bringing his words-not written in some Reason magazine article, but the Tanach, to life. He saw the vision and had no clue we went there because the Torah assured us of its fulfillment. One can argue his vision was an after the fact self fulfilling prophecy. You are welcome to tie yourself in knots trying to discount the words of our prophets, but it doesn't change the fact that the words of Amos, whether self fulfilling or not-and I am defiantly saying they are not-have come true. Want to blame radical bible thumpers for it, go ahead. It is independent of his vision and the facts on the ground confirm its truth, Self fulfilling or not. You can be as rational as you want but you cannot argue his vision is being played out in front of us. Tying it back full circle, when one looks at the totality of the jewish experience and calculates the odds, we are a mathematical impossibility. You can call that self fulfilling too but the one thing you cannot deny is "In each and every generation they rise up against us to destroy us. And the Holy One, blessed be He, rescues us from their hands."
Call it whatever you want if it makes you feel better, but the question remains how are we even here? We should have long since been wiped off the planet and yet here we are, debating if the words of the Tanach are valid. I dont have the sort of standing in Heaven to argue they are not.
I envy you.
1)
You say "You are a nation that dwells alone" cannot be self-fulfilling, but this is clearly self-fulfilling.
In the US, Jews are currently highly assimilated with intermarriage rates above 50% and declining religious observance across generations.
2)
Your claim about land desolation ignores substantial archaeological and historical evidence showing agricultural productivity under Romans, Byzantines, and later Ottoman periods.
The narrative of complete desolation primarily emerges from selective 19th century European travel accounts rather than comprehensive historical records.
3)
You attribute the scattering "among nations" to supernatural causes while ignoring that Jewish communities deliberately maintained diaspora networks for commercial and cultural advantages.
Many diaspora communities actively resisted opportunities for territorial consolidation, finding economic and cultural benefits in transnational networks.
4)
The suffering described as being "smitten before enemies" reflects typical historical power dynamics, not unique prophecy.
Jewish communities experienced both persecution and protection depending on their usefulness to various regimes, much like other minority merchant and administrative classes (especially monothestic ones, such as minority Christian, Muslim, etc).
5)
You cite Isaiah's 'man of pains' as fulfilled prophecy.
But the vagueness of the passage allows retroactive interpretation to fit nearly anything.
Referencing pain in childbirth as prophetic evidence demonstrates the weakness of your argument since this represents biology, not foreknowledge.
This common knowledge appears in virtually every ancient cultural tradition, making it meaningless as evidence for supernatural prediction.
Pain in childbirth is a basic biological fact shared by all mammals - nothing impressive or predictive.
6)
Your citation of being "despised" reflects historical patterns of economic competition and religious difference, not supernatural insight.
Similar patterns of discrimination affected numerous minority groups with specialized economic niches throughout history.
7)
Predictions about conquests from "the end of the earth" describe the normal geopolitical reality of the Levant, a natural invasion corridor.
Every society in this region experienced similar conquest patterns due to geography, not divine arrangement.
Generic military threats happen to every nation, this doesn’t distinguish the prophecy as unique or meaningful.
8)
You claim Amos's prophecy about land restoration proves supernatural foreknowledge while ignoring the active political movement that implemented it.
This circular reasoning celebrates the fulfillment while overlooking the human agents who deliberately enacted it.
As I mentioned, if people acted on his words, fulfillment says more about human belief than divine foresight.
9)
Your argument confuses correlation with causation, attributing ordinary historical patterns to supernatural causes.
Survival through persecution is a pattern shared by numerous monotheistic minority groups with strong internal governance and flexible adaptation strategies.
10)
You rely on emotional appeals about "mathematical impossibility" rather than engaging with well-documented historical processes.
Cultural persistence of monotheistic groups through adversity follows identifiable sociological patterns that can be observed across multiple enduring minority traditions (especially monotheistic ones, such as minority Christian groups, Muslim groups, as well as Roma/ gypsies, etc), not just Jewish ones.
Bottom line, you do the classic thing of cherry picking current events that fulfill prophecy while explaining away unfulfilled elements as coming in a future phase. This creates a convenient moving target that can never be actually evaluated
It’s worth noting that we don’t practice “original Israelite religion”.
Enjoyed your thoughts, but the Final Redemption is not one event[ it is a process - and who is to say how long and arduous a process [as per Rav Kook]
Rav Dessler has his views, but did he not plagiarize Dale Carnegie
Re: David Ilan’s comment. You couldn’t be more wrong. It’s a process. I said in my post “approximately 50%”. And then I made the leap to say רובו ככלו , that almost 50% is רוב. That doesn’t make my premise incorrect. The point of my premise is that the significant % increase has only increased in such a fashion since 1948. Whether the technical minutiae of the % is 48% this year or 50% next year or 52% in three years is irrelevant and missing the forest for the trees.
נודה לך שיר חדש על גאולתנו ועל פדות נפשנו
Is it possible that, would the prayer have been thus formulated (not The Deliverance but a deliverance), charedis would have accepted it?
Nope.
You are out of your mind - the Charedim would never accept it They went against it, and changing a word or two wont cut it .
Just like the Draft , they have 24 excuses, Should we eliminate 2 or 3 three, means nothing.
Here is the "kicker" if we eliminate all 24 excused they still wont go.
Beautiful!
Some people try to cover both bases by saying 'shetehai raishit tzmichat geulatenu'
https://jewishlink.news/the-great-reishit-tzemichat-geulatenu-debate/
RED doesn't say anything more than the mainstream chareidi view. What's the chiddush?