Gaza Wins and Losses

And the extraordinary reactions

The reactions to the impending ceasefire and hostage/prisoner trade are extraordinary.

Let’s first review the losses for each side:

Gaza:

• Hamas’ entire upper leadership killed

• Tens of thousands of fighters killed (vastly outnumbering whoever will be released in the trade), many more injured

• Tens of thousands of civilians killed, many more injured

• Utterly catastrophic devastation

• Seemingly invincible allies (Hezbollah, Assad) defeated

• Major sponsor (Iran) weakened and shamed

Israel:

• Nearly a thousand civilians killed

• Nearly a thousand soldiers killed, many more injured

• Hostage situation

• National trauma

• Some economic harm

• Significant long-term international political damage

It seems clear that while Israel’s losses are significant, Gaza’s losses far, far, far outweigh them.

Now let’s switch and look at the gains. First at Israel:

• Major threats from Hezbollah spectacularly near-neutralized

• Major threats from Israel’s biggest enemy, Iran, spectacularly decreased

• Hamas leadership and tens of thousands of fighters eliminated

• Restoration of deterrence in Middle East - it’s accepted that Israel can and will strike anywhere

• Internally, a widespread understanding that the nation needs to be stronger and more cohesive

Without downplaying the verious serious losses and harm on Israel’s side, these are very significant gains. Now let’s look at Gaza’s gains:

• A military/terrorist blow dealt to Israel

• Political and economic harm inflicted on Israel

These are not significant benefits for people in Gaza.

At this point, it should be the situation that Israel is celebrating, and Gaza is in mourning. But what we’re actually seeing is more or less the opposite.

In Israel, whether people think the ceasefire/exchange is a great idea or a terrible idea (personally I have no idea), nobody is celebrating.

In Gaza, and among their supporters abroad, while some are bemoaning the terrible catastrophe that Hamas brought upon them, a lot of people are celebrating. Some are celebrating a release from destruction, but many are celebrating a victory. They think that Hamas did a great thing on October 7th and they can’t wait for it to do something similar again.

Why are the reactions the opposite of what one might expect? The reason is the difference between Israeli (Jewish) culture and Palestinian (Islamic) culture.

For Israel, the priority is the life and wellbeing of Israel. It’s not about how much harm one does to one’s enemies; it’s about how much harm there has been to one’s own side, and whether one’s own nation is surviving and thriving.

For many of the Palestinians, on the other hand, it’s primarily about honor, which in turn relates to how much harm one does to one’s enemies. That’s much more important than how much harm one’s own people suffers in the process.

This is exactly why the conflict started a hundred years ago. For so many Arabs, it was more important that the Jews should not have a state than that the Palestinians should have a state. And this is exactly why the various peace talks over the decades failed. And, barring some extraordinary radical change in the Palestinian and global mindset, this is why there will be no peaceful resolution.