Friday, September 13, 2019

...And Now I'm Still Confused

The last post, "Voting Strategically," garnered a lot of feedback. Some people rejected the premise of the post, and insisted that there is no serious threat to the country from charedim not receiving an education. But the numbers and facts show otherwise. The organic changes that are happening in charedi society are way too slow and too small to make enough of a difference.

Others agreed with the problem. However, they argued, reasonably convincingly, that voting Blue-And-White, or Yisrael Beytenu, won't help. Both of those parties will be equally happy to change what they've previously said and bring UTJ into the coalition. And even if they don't, they are unlikely to be able to change anything in charedi society,

Still others pointed out that although BW certainly aren't leftists on security, there is still quite a bit of difference between Likud and BW. Ganz still believes that the Gaza disengagement was a good move. And with absolutely zero experience in public office, he is not qualified to take on the extraordinarily challenging job of prime minister.

And so I still don't know who to vote for. But everyone should keep in mind this paragraph from Ben-David's article about the charedi community:
"If a population group this large continues to exercise considerable influence on the direction and amplitude of flows from the government faucet in a manner that only further enhances their exponential growth, while concurrently depriving their children of the vital tools necessary for integration into a competitive global economy and a modern society, Israel will cease to exist."


  1. I like the Rhiziner Rebbe's take - said in the 1850's when there was no Israel - that the yiden will not be able to grasp a geula through miracles, it will have to go through the teva. What will be? the nations will rise up against the Jews and throw them out; a few survivors will make it to Israel and the geula will happen through them. So there is a process going on here, and one can see if one is prepared to be open minded that it is heading, quietly and steadily, towards something good.
    As far as the 'global competitive economy' when the debt bomb and massive asset bubble that is currently growing wildly around the western world finally explodes, I don't think there will be too much to integrate with. I guess the rise of Yisroel is the fall of Edom, no?

  2. what practical difference does it make if Ganz hasn't changed his mind about the disengagement? I supposed Bibi now has terrible things to say about the disengagement -- although he voted for it initially -- but when push comes to shove, depite all his rhetoric, is he doing a particularly effective job protecting Otef Aza? Not really

  3. And the cost to the economy was calculated to be 100 billion.

    Can we really afford to keep funding charedi society's choices?

  4. Given Israel's current form of government what do you and/or Ben-David propose as a solution other than fervent prayer?

  5. Your instincts were correct; trust them. What is at stake here is not this policy choice or that, but whether the state is to be run as a corrupt enterprise for the purpose of maintaining of power by the rulers, at any cost to its citizens and for unlimited duration, or whether is is to be a state of and for the people that creates and implements policy for legitimate policy reasons. Whether or not Ganz is the ideal choice is beside the point. He is the only choice.

  6. There is an essential difference between left and right:
    The left says: we have a problem, if we don't solve it our way, the world will end.
    The right says: we have a problem, we don't know how to solve it, but if we try your way the problem won't be solved and it will probably get worse.
    The charedi problem is no different.

  7. I applaud Dr. Slifkin's prudent decision to look at the whole picture of the Blue and White party's positions, their attitude towards the religious community in its entirety, and the likelihood that their forming a coalition would bring about fundamental changes, however desireable,in the chareidi community (almost nil).

    1. Why do you say that when the evidence points in the other direction? When Yesh Atid cut benefits to the charedi population, their participation in the workforce increased significantly.
      When Bibi got rid of Lapid and reinstated the benefits, workforce participation dropped back down.

    2. Did/how did- the ups & downs effect the general economy?

  8. Charedim have been changing and will continue to change. Blue and White will not help the change happen.

    Whatever money charedim get from the government is far from sufficient to prevent them from continuing to change.

  9. "Others agreed with the problem. However, they argued, reasonably convincingly, that voting Blue-And-White, or Yisrael Beytenu, won't help."
    I'm not following. Bibi will definitely give all to the charedim. B&W amd lieberman have pledged not to do so. Lieberman has already kept his word on this. Gantz/Lapid most likely will also not join up with shas/utj. if the future of israel is at stake, i done see the question of who to vote for

  10. Follow my logic:
    Based on the last election, we can reasonably assume that if UTJ gets an eighth seat, it will come at the expense of Likud. We all know that the best chance to have BW get the mantle of forming the next government is for the Likud to get less seats than BW and that can only happen if the Likud loses seats to.... UTJ.

    So vote UTJ so that BW forms the next government!

  11. If we accept your premise that the most pressing issue in the country is reforming the Haredi Education system, I still think that a vote for Yamina is the best way to approach that issue.

    As minister of Education, Naftali Benet made many successful reforms to the education system (reducing class size, encouraging 5 point Math and English). He realizes the importance of a solid grounding in English and Math for as many Israelis as possible for the benefit of the Israeli economy (as well as the individuals who will have better employment opportunities). He also believes that reforming the education in the Haredi and Arab sectors is in the National interest.

    Benet is also able to work together with the Haredi leadership, and is better suited to coming to an agreement with Shas and Aguda how we can work together to improve the Haredi education system.

    If someone perceived as anti-Haredi (like Liberman or Lapid) ran the ministry of Education, on principle the Haredi leadership would reject any proposals that they make - they would rather forgo all public funding and have mass demonstrations in the streets, rather than have Lapid tell them what they can and cannot teach in their schools.

    I heard Benet speak before the last election. He has a good working relationship with Deri and Gafni (ironically, he finds it easier to work with the Haredi leadership, than he does with the Charalim in his own party - which is why he left before the last election).

    In my opinion, the best way to push for reform in the Hardei education system would be to have Benet as Minister of Education.

    Also, if Blue and White were able to form a coalition with the Haredim and without Likud, they would offer them anything that they asked, including permanent exemption to the draft and complete independence in their education system


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